The escalation of the Israeli -Iranian conflict – a blow to the interests of Russia

More fierce The escalation of the Israeli-Iranian conflictthe last manifestation of which was Blow on the headquarters of Iranian television in Tehran, how will this affect the interests Russia.

Despite the fact that at the official level, Moscow resolutely condemned Israeli’s actions, today we can hear reasoning that, they say, an aggravation in the Middle East Even beneficial to Russia, At least for two reasons.

The first is the growth of world prices for hydrocarbons. According to experts, the cost of oil can fly up to $ 300 per barrel if Iran blocks Ormuzian Strait. Those who warm this argument reason like this: Iranians are sorry, but the longer the conflict will continue, the more the Russian budget will be replenished, thanks to our “nurse” – oil.

The second reason why someone can consider an exacerbation in the Middle East profitable for Moscow is the switching of the attention of opponents of Russia from Ukrainian theme for the confrontation of Israel and Iran, which seems to require a change in the priorities of Western programs military assistance. The logic here is this: let this weapon beat somewhere there, in the Middle East, if only it didn’t get Zelensky.

However, both of these arguments are doubtful or even flawed. As for oil, it will still not work for a long time to weld on Iranian trouble. The global market is arranged so that after a short -term market jump in prices, their rollback inevitably occurs, and there are enough mechanisms to bring the prices flying from the coils. This is only a matter of time. As for the idea that now in the West they will cease to help Ukraine and begin to give the weapon to Israel intended for it, then here you do not need to amuse themselves with special illusions, since for the West conflict with Russia – existential.

In this regard, the conflict in the Middle East is fraught with numerous risks and threatswhich, yet it is not too late, must be clearly designated.

Given that the purpose of the Israeli prime minister declared in an open text Benjamin Netanyahu consists in achieving liquidation of the Islamic Republic of Iransuch a perspective is fraught with a new threat to Moscow, which only five months ago signed an agreement on allied relations.

If we imagine that Israel, with the support of the United States and the West, will be able to achieve change of political orientation of Iraninstead of an ally in Eurasia, Moscow can find an opponent, an opponent or even a conductor of Western interests, as was the case in the era of the reign of Shah Raza Pahlavi.

But even if this does not happen, the military operation against Iran puts numerous Energy, Transport, Logistic projects with the participation of the Islamic Republic. One of them is the international transport corridor (MTK) “North-South“, Part of which passes through the territory of Iran (this route is called an alternative to the Suez Canal).

The prospects of the mechanism of six -way cooperation on the mechanism of South Caucasus In the format “Three Plus Three” (Russia-Sturcation-Iran and Azerbaijan-Army-Georgia), as well as cooperation between Russia and Iran at the Caspian.

And finally, an attack on Iran is a sensitive blow to BRICSThe Islamic Republic has recently become a member.

In general, an attack on Iran can hit Russia with a ricochet, and it hurts to hit.

The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial office.

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