European energy markets are preparing for extreme heat – a high risk of rising electricity prices

Intensive weather phenomena They are expected in Northern Europe that will create problems for energy markets, more and more depending on Sunny And wind energy.

High -pressure areas, as predicted, will return later this month, bearing a risk heat After unusually dry and sunny spring in Northern Europe. This will increase the demand for energy for cooling, although the impact on the prices of natural gas will also depend on the growth of solar generation and levels nuclear generation In France.

“This summer promises to be very significant– said Andrew Pedrinia meteorologist of the company Atmospheric G2. – We will hear a lot about extreme phenomena “.

To the south, in the Mediterranean, unusually high temperatures were already observed: in Seville on May 30, they reached almost 39 degrees Celsius, which became the hottest May day in Spain since 1950. Together with the Balkans and Southeast Europe, this area is likely to experience Extreme heat This summer, according to data Atmospheric G2 And Metdesk.

Even Scandinavian countries expect temperatures above average over the course of most of the season, according to data European Center for medium -term meteorological forecasts.

The transition to warm, dry and calm conditions in June, as expected, will last and repeat throughout the summer, according to forecasting models. Since high -pressure systems block cool wet air from the Atlantic, production wind energy will decrease, while production solar energy It will increase sharply.

Many key rivers in Europe, including Rhinerecovered after low levels caused by hot and dry periods this spring. Strong rains and melting of snow increased river levels after dry and hot spring, but extreme heat can turn these achievements back, especially in Alpswhere are the levels hydroelectric reservoirs Switzerland is much lower than normal.

“Risks for hydropower are preserved due to drought”– says the Energy Consultant Inspired. However, the balance of demand and supply is becoming more and more difficult to increase the share of intermittent generation from renewable sourcesdeclared Nick Campbellgeneral director Inspired.

“In the coming months, we will see this in real time: if warm and calm days come, a decrease in wind energy production will mean that natural gas will have to be used to meet the demand for cooling– he said. – This will increase the costs. “

Predictions of cloud cover are unusually low in many regions, which increases the likelihood of record solar activity and production of solar energyespecially in the southeast. “This is a really strong signal– said Todd Crawfordvice president of meteorology Atmospheric G2. – I have not seen such a signal from the models “.

Electric and natural gas traders They will carefully monitor the development of events during the summer, since the increasing dependence of Europe on renewable sources strengthened the role of weather changes, noted Marco Saalfrankhead of trade operations in continental Europe in the Swiss energy company Axpo Holding AG.

“As a result, weather phenomena now have a more direct and significant impact on the market”– said Saalfranke in an interview.

Source link