Negotiations on the war in Ukraine: what will Russia offer in the memorandum, and how will Trump react?

On June 2, the next stage of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine may be held at the end of the war. She offered this date MoscowBut Kyiv He has not yet confirmed participation, demanding previously a memorandum with the conditions of the world. Russia intends to submit a document directly at the meeting. There was no official refusal of Ukraine.

However, the decisive factor will not be the meeting itself, but Conditionswhich sides will present to each other. Judging by public statements, positions Russia And Ukraine They diverge radically, which is already generating forecasts about the failure of negotiations. The parties will probably be accused of a breakdown and try to convince Trump In its commitment to the world, indicating the intransigence of the opponent.

Key question: what Trump will solve

The main thing in the upcoming memorandum: will it consider Trump The conditions of Russia are acceptable. As US Secretary of State Marco Rubio noted, it is important whether the Russian Federation will demonstrate the readiness for “Constructive and conscientious dialogue with Ukraine”. If Trump considers the conditions acceptable, he can put pressure on Kyiv and Europeans so that they accept them. Whether this pressure will succeed is another question, but in this case Trump is unlikely to apply measures against Russia.

Is it ready Putin To soften the requirements to the level that Washington considers acceptable? The signals from the Kremlin are contradictory: on the one hand, Russia demonstrates the willingness to fight “Before fulfilling all goals”on the other hand, is interested in the dialogue with Trump, which leaves the space for compromises.

What will Trump do if Russia's conditions are unacceptable

If Trump considers the Russian memorandum unacceptable, it has four ways:

• Hard sanctions: Introduce duties of 500% to countries buying Russian goods and strengthen the supply of weapons to Ukraine. This option is supported by Kyiv, Europeans and many Republicans, but it carries the risks of escalation and trade war, which can hit the United States itself.
• Biden approach: maintain existing sanctions, continue supplying weapons to Ukraine and negotiate with Russia. However, this can delay the conflict, and the outcome will depend on the situation on the battlefield.
• Do nothing: Trump can continue calls to Zelensky and Putin, postponing the decisions, which will lead to the cessation of military assistance to Ukraine in the summer and the weakening of its positions. Dialogue with Russia can be “frozen” or separated from the Ukrainian question.
• Accept the position of Russia: Press in Kyiv and Europe so that they adopt the requirements of Moscow. So far, Trump is not a readiness for this, but such a scenario cannot be excluded.

What path will Trump choose

This week, Western media reported that Trump was close to imposing tough sanctions against Russia, but later data appeared that he had not yet decided and “Dissatisfied with Putin”. On May 28, Trump said he would give himself two more weeks – until June 15, to decide on further steps.

Some experts believe that Trump may begin to put pressure on Russia in order to force it to a truce, being a disappointed Putin position. However, there is an opinion that his discontent – bluffcaused by the pressure of Western media, which accuse him of weakness before the Kremlin. According to this version, Trump seeks to move away from the war, to establish relations with Russia and focus on countering China in the Asia-Pacific region. In this case, new sanctions are contrary to its strategies, as they can strengthen China’s influence on Russia.

Moscow, in turn, reacts to criticizing Trump calmly, which may indicate reluctance to aggravate relations. Through the surroundings of Trump, the approach struggle is also noticeable: Rubio and KELLOLAD FOR HAVING, while the Whitkoff and the Wansa team – for the dialogue with Russia.

The result of negotiations will depend on the conditions in the Russian memorandum, which will determine the further steps of Trump.

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