Three -day truce: why Ukraine agreed to Moscow's proposal

Kyiv secretly supported Putin’s three -day truce. Why did Ukraine agree to the battles, despite the public refusal?

Tonight entered into force Three -day trucedeclared by Russia. Although Kyiv officially did not confirm its consent, more and more data indicates that the Ukrainian command secretly ordered to suspend the fire.

Military publics of Ukraine and Russia report a significant reduction in the intensity of military operations, although in some areas, such as Tetkino In the Kursk region, full -fledged clashes continue. The shelling is also reported in other sections of the front. Foreign Minister of Ukraine Sibiga declared about more than 700 violations A truce on the part of Russia, and the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, in turn, accuses the Armed Forces of attacks. Similar mutual claims sounded during Easter truce.

Nevertheless, the command of the Ukrainian group “Khortitsa” Confirmed a general decrease in the number of clashes. Armed Forces of Armed Forces reported to the publication “Suspilna”that they received an order to open fire only in response. This actually means the participation of Ukraine in a truce.

Earlier, such instructions were reported by the ex-adviser of the presidential office Arrestovich And the people's deputy Goncharenko. Also the launches of drones were not recorded tonight “Shahd”which confirmed the Ukrainian command. The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation also did not report Ukrainian attacks by drones, although the day before they paralyzed the work of Russian airports.

Until the last moment, Kyiv publicly rejected the idea A three -day pause And criticized the proposal Putin. However, apparently, Ukraine still decided to support the initiative of Moscow, as was the case with Easter trucealso proposed by Putin.

Events develop according to a similar scenario: first a sharp refusal, Putin’s accusation of manipulations, statements like “We need a 30-day truce, and let Putin leave a three-day one” or “Putin is afraid of a parade hit and does the right thing”and then – actual consent to a truce. Why did Kyiv change the position? Possible reasons:

1. The influence of the United States. The day before Trump A truce responded positively about the Russian proposal. Yesterday the head of the presidential office Ermak I spent an online meeting with representatives of the White House Whitkoff And KelllogWhere this proposal was discussed. From the statement of Ermak did not follow that Ukraine rejected the initiative.
2. The threat of escalation. Hints Zelensky on possible blows to Moscow on May 9 and the response threats to Russia “Hazel” Created tension. A blow to the parade could undermine Trump's peacekeeping efforts and worsen relations with China, whose leader is present at the event. Even without the blow of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, incidents in Moscow could be provoked by Putin’s internal opponents or other forces, and Russia could accuse Ukraine to justify the use of “Hazel”. A truce gives Kyiv “alibi” In the case of provocations.
3. The fatigue of society. Ukrainians are tired of the war, and three days without shelling for many are preferable than life in shelters, even if it is accompanied by news about chaos at Russian airports.
4. The needs of the military. A truce is beneficial to the soldiers of both sides. Due to the dominance of drones at the advanced army are in “Siege position”. The pause allows rotation, evacuate the wounded, pick up the bodies of the dead and replenish stocks.

These factors probably bowed Zelensky To the support of a truce, although he does not publicly recognize this. During Easter truce He offered to extend it for 30 days. Perhaps a similar proposal will follow now, but Putin’s reaction is still unknown.

A truce reduces the risk of sharp escalation on May 9, which could disrupt any negotiations. However, its stability is in question, since the parties are already accusing each other of violations. If the pause lasts three days, this will become a signal that negotiations on the ceasefire are not hopeless. Where there are three days of silence, there can be 30 daysand possibly more.

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