Will Putin go to the world according to Trump's plan: what awaits Ukraine?

Will the President of Russia go Vladimir Putin to the end of the war in Ukraine in accordance with peaceful planproposed Donald Trump? This issue remains key against the background of current negotiations.

According to Trump planUkraine required the fulfillment of two main conditions. Firstly, consent to termination of hostilities Along the current line of the front. Secondly, conclusion Harvesting agreements. In March, Kyiv agreed to a truce, and the resource agreement was signed the day before.

President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky Theoretically, he may try to change the situation: to withdraw consent to a truce or refuse to sign additional documents necessary for implementation resource agreementsfor example, the regulations of the investment fund. However, such a step would lead to serious consequences for the Ukrainian authorities, which makes such a scenario unlikely, although not excluded completely.

At the moment, the main question is whether it will be possible United States Agree with the Kremlin on the completion of the conflict. Will Russia agree to support Trump's initiative and cease to fire? Conflicting signals come from Moscow. Some sources claim that Putin In general, it is ready to discuss only individual details to the agreement. Others indicate that he continues to insist on his maximalist requirementsbecause of which negotiations came to a standstill.

It is worth noting that the conditions proposed in Trump plan (if the White House does not change them under the pressure of supporters of the continuation of the conflict) are the most profitable for Russia taking into account the current situation at the front, where The Armed Forces of Ukraine The defeat has not suffered, and their defense remains stable.

The maximum goals of Russiasuch as the transfer of all four occupied regions, a reduction in the number of Ukrainian army, removal Zelensky From the authorities and the change in the domestic policy of Ukraine, at the moment are unattainable by diplomatic. Even if Trump He wishes to support these requirements, he will not be able to force Kyiv to fulfill them. The Ukrainian authorities are ready to continue resistance even without American assistance, but they will not go to such conditions. For their consent, the situation at the front should radically change in favor of Russia, and The Armed Forces of Ukraine be on the verge of defeat. However, such changes are not yet observed and it is not known whether they are possible in principle.

Conclusion Armistry By Trump plan It would allow Russia to get out of a difficult situation that arose as a result of invasion in February 2022. At the same time, Russia would have retained control over almost 20% of Ukraine, would have achieved from USA recognition of annexation Crimea And the lifting of sanctions, which would open the way to similar decisions from other countries. This would strengthen the economic and geopolitical positions of Russia. In addition, the plan blocks Ukraine's entry into NATO and probably provides Russia with additional benefits during negotiations with Trump. Absence in terms of obligations USA for the provision of Ukraine security guarantees Makes unlikely to send European troops to the country. Also, Russia is not obliged to compensate Ukraine with damage from the war.

For these reasons, representatives of Western supporters of the continuation of the conflict, for example, Boris JohnsonThey criticize sharply Trump planconsidering it extremely beneficial for Russia and actually recognizing it the winner in the war.

The only significant concessions from Russia within the framework Trump plan – This is a program Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant under control USA And Kakhovsky hydroelectric power station Under the control of Ukraine. However, the implementation of these points is associated with serious organizational and technical difficulties and it is unclear whether they will be completed in practice. Even if these concessions are implemented, they will become an insignificant price for achieving other goals. Russia can tie a program Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station With the restoration of water supply in Crimea On the channel after the repair of a destroyed dam.

For “Rosatom” Settlement of Status Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant In the international legal field could also strengthen the company's position in the global market.

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