The Guardian Weekly: Can Europe re -refine?

One of the main topics in Europe in recent weeks has become rearmament And the desire to get rid of dependence in the military sphere from the United States.

The relations of Europeans with America are becoming more and more tense, especially after Trump came to power. This is evidenced by politicians, experts and journalists, and this topic is actively discussed on the covers of leading publications, such as The Guardian Weekly.

Last week at the summit EU A plan for increasing military spending was adopted by increasing the permissible level of budget deficit.

The main attention in financing the project is paid to Germany, where the future Chancellor Mertz plans to allocate other projects for defense and other projects 500 billion euros by increasing public debt. Germany is the only large economy of Western Europe with a relatively small level of public debt to GDP – 63%, while Britain, France, Italy and Spain, this indicator exceeds 100%.

The purpose of all these actions is clearly stated: to sharply increase the costs of defense and production of weapons, minimize dependence on the United States and expand the possibilities of assistance to Ukraine.

But how realistic is it to achieve these goals?

First of all, it is worth noting that the European economy and finance are now far from in the best form. The main problem is the growing non -competitiveness of European manufacturers compared to other countries that have been observed for several decades.

There are several main reasons for this: high taxes, the high cost of labor, the bureaucraticization of the system of interaction between the state and business, as well as the high cost of energy and raw materials, most of which have to be imported.

As a result, the process is observed deindustrialization – A massive output of production to China and other non -Western countries.

For a long time, negative processes could be smooth out due to the issue of the money supply, which allowed to maintain high social standards, despite the decline in competitiveness.

However, there is a limit to everything. A huge emission during the Covid-19 pandemic, as well as the war in Ukraine, which aggravated the problems of the high cost of energy due to the reduction in the supply of cheap Russian oil and gas, actually led to the exhaustion of the model on which the European economy worked.

Further mass printing of money threatens the basics of the financial system of Europe and can cause huge inflation.

In such conditions, the EU decides to spend hundreds of billions on military needs, presenting it as a way of solving economic problems, “promoting” their own production.

But in fact, European entry into the arms race will not solve its problem, but only aggravate them, threatening the economy. This resembles a situation where the huge military expenses of the USSR led to an economic collapse.

Firstly, Financing military spending is, in fact, the same pure issue of money. The main buyer of these products will be the budgets of the EU countries that replenish the reserves of their armies and supply weapons to Ukraine. Only a small part can break into the world market, where the competition is already very tough.

The fact that a significant part of these expenses is planned to be financed by increasing the public debt of Germany means that in the future this country, like earlier France, Italy and Britain, can plunge into a debt pit, which will negatively affect the financial stability of the entire European Union.

Secondly, A significant part of the funds for military purposes will be spent outside the EU. As the head of the European Commission Ursula von der Layen recently stated, 80% Europeans spend all the money on the purchase of weapons outside the EU, primarily in the USA. Almost two-thirds of the arms purchased in 2020-2024 NATO member states came from America. Thus, most of the funds allocated by Europeans go to support not European, but an American economy. If you try to sharply rebuild and purchase only European weapons (as Macron insists on this), then many years or even decades can take many samples to launch their own production. In this case, there is no talk of fast re -equipment. In addition, the production of weapons will need to increase the import of various types of raw materials, which will also not improve the EU trading balance.

Thirdly, Defense expenses can be financed not by increasing debts and issuing, but by reducing other articles of budget expenditures, including social needs, as well as by “freezing” of salaries indexation. However, this will lead to the actual dismantling of the European social state and can cause the political destabilization of the entire EU.

In such conditions, Europe will be difficult to increase its own defense production and achieve “Strategic Independence” From the USA. This is also recognized by the Europeans themselves, which was demonstrated on the summit urgently convened in London after the scandalous skirmish of Zelensky with Trump.

That is why the Europeans, despite their fierce public rhetoric, persistently advised Kyiv to agree with Trump and fulfill his requirements, including consent to the ceasefire, which was previously rejected by both Ukrainian authorities and leading European countries.

“Strategic Independence of Europe” (including in the military sector) is possible no earlier than the EU will solve its basic economic problems. It will be very difficult, and not the fact that it will work out at all, especially in the conditions of Trump's threats to introduce duties on European goods.

In such circumstances in Europe, the idea of ​​restoring relations with Russia is already starting to carefully discuss in order to resume the import of cheap energy and return to the Russian market, which could help solve economic problems. However, these voices are clearly not in the mainstream, and the general trend is in the opposite direction – to a sharp increase in mutual hostility between the EU and Russia. Moreover, the European Union is developing a plan for a complete abandonment of Russian energy by 2027.

Nevertheless, given the amount of challenges facing Europe, no, even the most incredible, from the point of view of today, changes in the European course.

However, to normalize relations of Russia and the EU, it is necessary to at least end the war in Ukraine. This is a basic condition for starting processes in this direction.

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