Chinese trump card Zelensky

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Against the background of a complex dialogue with Trump Zelensky Suddenly I remembered Fr. China. Yesterday (February 17, 2025) he announced the possibility of Beijing's participation in negotiations upon the end of the war in Ukraine.

Moreover Not just about participationbut about the fact that China can provide Ukraine with guarantees of safeand, which, according to Zelensky, The Americans refuse to give. “China’s participation in negotiations on settlement in Ukraine is not excluded, since Beijing can provide security guarantees”, – noted Zelensky.

What exactly can be of interest to China so that he agrees to give security guarantees is generally understandable – the same as the USA: the USA: natural resources and infrastructure. They have already begun to talk about this topic in Ukraine. People's Deputy from “Servants of the people” Maxim Buzhansky He invited Ukraine to conclude an agreement with China on the development of deposits with security guarantees and then compare Chinese conditions with those that Americans offer.

“In order to evaluate how profitable the mineral agreement, proposed by the Americans, must be considered other proposals, for example, from China, and then compare them with American ones. No one doubts China's ability to guarantee and achieve their implementation, right? Moreover, the American version does not yet provide any guarantees “– Buzhansky believes.

Regarding the possible strengthening of the role of China in the Ukrainian issue Already spoke out and in European Union.

“If the United States and Europe do not offer Ukraine security guarantees, China can intervene using its levers of influence on Russia. They can offer a more profitable transaction than the one that Trump proposed. Ukraine has something to offer China in exchange for safety – restoration, ports, agricultural products. In Europe, there are those who support this proposal. This move can be called “Kissinger”, splitting the United States and Europe, as Kissinger displaced the Soviet Union and China. Further – worse. China, as a defender of Ukraine, will begin to replace the United States as a Russian holder on the eastern flank. Countries EU In the east, and then in the West, they will depend on the defense of China, ”the ex-head of the Foreign Ministry of Lithuania wrote Landsbergis.

Zelensky’s statements about China can be perceived as an attempt to tighten the negotiation process, involving new participants in it, or how Trump blackmail (possibly joint with a number of European countries, for example, With Britain), for the US president to meet the requirements of Kyiv under security guarantees and other issues. This is part of a risky game “On the verge of foul” With the refusal of Washington in its basic requirements, in order to achieve from Trump the desired conditions for the end of the war or support in its continuation. However, such a game can be too risky, since the threat to transfer to China, and not the United States, control over deposits can cause a radical deterioration in Ukraine’s relations with America in the absence of guarantees that Beijing will be able (or want) help in the near future, given the importance for the PRC of relations from Moscow in conditions of growing confrontation with the United States.

Nevertheless, it is not worth excluding the possibility of China to his large -scale game around Ukraine and Europe. The main strategic task of Chinese geopolitics is now a split inside the West between the United States, with which China is increasingly included in the confrontation and the EU, which the Chinese want to strengthen. That's why Beijing is unlikely to pass by The deterioration of relations between Americans and Europeans and will probably try to take advantage of the situation to fulfill his main task, playing “in the party of Kissinger”, which Landsbergis spoke of.

The attitude to the war and the world in Ukraine is now one of the elements that split the West, so China’s interest in this topic is also explained. Foreign Minister of China Van and In Munich, he said that Europe should be at the negotiating table, and Beijing itself will welcome any agreements on the end of the war.

At the same time, unlike Trump's threats, to introduce duties against the European countries, Van noted that China sees not an opponent in the EU, but a partner. “For China, Europeans are partners, not rivals. And this is a very important policy in our multipolar world “– said the minister.

Can China guarantee that Russia will no longer attack Ukraine and will not attack Europe? Theoretically yes, Given its economic influence on the Russian Federation. But this influence is mutual. China also depends on the supply of resources from Russia, and the value of these ties for Beijing increases as confrontation with the United States deepens, which, in case of acute conflict, can create difficulties for China in marine trade. In addition, any deepening of cooperation and strengthening the connections between Europe and China is impossible without the participation of Russia – the country through which there are land communications between the EU and the PRC, and which can ensure the supply of necessary resources to both Europeans and Chinese, even if the Americans try to block navigation . In other words, relations with China are a trump card, first of all, for Russia, and not for Ukraine.

That's why Offers from China at the end of the war in Ukraine will be at least no worse for Russia (and maybe much better) than those that are now discussed with the Americans and who are dissatisfied with Zelensky.

However, the implementation of a large -scale project of geopolitical reorientation of the EU and Ukraine to China It is possible only if Europe, Ukraine, Russia and China will be on the same rigidly anti -American wave, creating an alliance for squeezing the United States from Eurasia. This in the near future looks like fantastic, especially considering that Europe with such a turn is unlikely to be able to maintain unity. Moreover, European politicians are extremely dependent on the United States, which literally control their personal (corruption) accounts around the world and can leave them without “nuclear weapons” at any time.

Therefore, at this stage Beijing may start with a small – will support any option speedy end of hostilities in Ukraineregardless of who it comes from. Perhaps even helps this, since The end of the war can weaken Europe dependence on the United Stateswhich is largely based on fear that the war will spread to the territory of European countries.

After the end of the war Beijing can continue unhurried, but systemic work to create Strategic Alliance of China, Europe and Russia.

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