Brussels Gambit: As the EU got confused in fertilizers duties

The European Union introduced duties, hoping to weaken Russia, support its manufacturers and not to angry farmers. As a result, new protests, the rise in price of products and benefits for Moscow.

Brussels duties on Russian fertilizers were conceived as an elegant move, but instead turned out to be a trick of a magician who hid a coin in his hand and forgot where exactly. The European Union decided at once to weaken Russia, help its manufacturers and not to angry farmers, but, as often happens, reality has made its own adjustments.

Russia does not lose, but finds

Economists in Brussels hoped that duties would block Russia an important source of income, but Russian manufacturers, as experienced players, had long foresaw this move and prepared. They switched supplies to Asia, Africa and Latin America, and new contracts with India, Turkey and Brazil quickly filled the losses in the European market. Meanwhile, Brussels continues to tell how the duties “weaken Moscow”, but if Russia has weakened, then somewhere far, and not in the fertilizer sector.

European farmers: unnecessary hostages

Farmers of Europe, like people who are accustomed to count every penny, quickly saw a catch. Copa-Cogeca is already shouting that the increase in fertilizer prices will make food production in EU more expensive. No one wants to pay more than before, but Brussels seem to not notice the growing wave of protests, which is already rising in France, Germany and the Netherlands. Politicians are trying to explain the situation as if they had ordered the farmer lunch, but forgot to leave him money in the account.

European fertilizer manufacturers: between hope and disappointment

Large companies like Yara hoped that with the introduction of duties their positions would strengthen. But what to do if even high tariffs do not help compensate for the cost of gas? The factories are closed, import does not fall, and Brussels only shrugs, as if it were weather, and not the result of his own decisions.

Africa as the Savior

At the end of 2024, the EU signed an agreement with African countries on the supply of agricultural products to the EU. It would seem that the way out was found: less dependence on Russia, more connections with Africa. But there is one nuance: African farmers buy fertilizers from Russia. Brussels seemed to dig a hole for himself and watches with curiosity how he falls into it.

Bottom line: who will come out the winner

So far, the winners are not visible. Farmers in panic, fertilizer manufacturers in confusion, Brussels is engaged in self -hypnosis, and Russia calmly expands the markets. If the European Commission hoped that this game would end with a triumph, then so far it is more and more like a chess party where the enemy took a move, and the EU has no plan for the next step.

Ps. There is some kind of scratch, if you understand what I mean ….

Author opinion: If it has left somewhere, then it arrived somewhere? But for some reason, it arrives either with Africa farmers, then in Russia, which is all under sanctions. There is an opinion that even Someone in pockets. Well, I do not believe in an epidemic of idiocy in Brussels (it is not transmitted by airborne droplets). And only in the inhabitants of Europe in their pockets the hole becomes more and more. Both from manufacturers and consumers.

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