Trump tariffs: Double threat to Greek olive oil – what exporters are afraid

Exporters of standardized olive oil anxiously monitor the escalation of the trade war unleashed by the new US President Donald Trump.

They fear that in the year when the growth of his export is expected, the situation can radically change due to the risk of introducing horizontal duties on European products.

Greek olive oil in the USA

Sources in the market reported that the American market is one of the key for Greek standardized olive oil. According to estimates, last year Greece exported about 17,000 tons of this product, which is much more than 4,000 tons, which were exported about 15 years ago.

However, if duties are introduced on Greek products, its competitiveness in the American market will decrease significantly. This will happen not only because of the increase in prices, but also because it will lose to olive oil from Turkey, which has certain qualitative advantages.

The threat of Turkey

Production in the country, a neighbor of Greece, reached 450 thousand tons, and, of course, its products will not be taxed. Also, Tunisia and Morocco olive oil will not be affected.

Speaking about the export indicators of standardized olive oil in 2025, sources noted that an improvement is expected if unforeseen circumstances do not occur. However, it will take a few more years to restore the positions lost over the previous two years. It is known that high market prices led to a decrease in oil exports by about 20%. In 2024, the volume of exports is estimated at about 45,000 tons.

Reducing price to 5 euros per kilogram

It is worth noting that if last year at the same time the manufacturer’s price was more than 9 euros per kilogram, then this year it is about 5 euros per kilogram – we are talking about the olive oil of the first spin. The average export price is estimated at 9-10 euros per kilogram.

As for consumer complaints about high retail prices, other sources argue that these are stocks of last year, when the cost of raw materials was at a high level. That is why they promote them at high prices.

Battle on supermarket shelves

It is expected that these reserves will be sold by the end of February. And the standardized olive oil of the new production has already begun to appear on the market at significantly lower prices. Of course, companies engaged in standardization are faced with the problem of restoring lost sales not only abroad, but also in the domestic market.

Over the past two years, sales of standardized olive oil in the domestic market have fallen sharply. It was replaced by either various types of vegetable oils, or a bulk product in tin banks of 16 kg! A real battle will unfold on supermarket shelves, especially given the policy of proposals for the return of consumers.

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