Trump's policy analysis: geo -economic strategies and risks

Observing Trump's actions, two basic sensations can be distinguished: Firstly, Donald Trump seems to only now begin to realize what a heavy inheritance he got.

SecondlyTrump and his team became hostages of the media images they created, which should correspond to the expectations of the American voter. The need to maintain the image of people who can quickly solve complex problems creates a turbulent situation that in turn entails serious risks for both the whole world and the United States itself.

Fresh example: The White House confirmed that from February 1, 2025, the United States is introduced duties For the supply of goods from Canada, China and Mexico – as Trump promised before taking office. This solution will create serious difficulties for the countries chosen by Trump as the first objects of geoeconomic pressure. This is especially true for Canada, 77% of which accounts for the United States. It is not surprising that Justin Trudeau expressed concern, saying that difficult times were waiting for Canada. For Mexico, the situation is even more critical: 79% of its exports are spent on the American market. With China, the situation is more complicated, so the level of duties introduced is only 10%, and not 25%, as for Canada and Mexico.

The first round of Trump's tariff wars, as well as “Casus Greenland” And the pressure on Panama reveals the essence of Trump's policies, at least in its initial period:

• Temporary limits of Trump's tactics: The assertive tactics of Trump has an obvious temporary limit: from 100 to 180 days. Therefore, it was important for him to come to the White House with already resolved issues. This idea failed, which caused Trump's annoyance and the desire to “increase the degree” of pressure. Understanding the criticality of rapid success, Trump puts pressure on those who cannot provide real resistance, using the “right” to achieve their interests.
• Dependence on the American market: Trump uses the dependence of other countries on the American market, imposed interdependence formed over the past 20 years. He “presses” the countries that are inside the American -centric economy, while increasing the attractiveness of geopolitical multi -vector.
• Hidden goals of sanctions: Behind the declared goals of Trump, a second layer is always present. The sanctioned pressure on Beijing is explained by the need to stop the “fentanil epidemic”, but in fact, it is about a decrease in Chinese influence in East and Southeast Asia and the restriction of high-tech export in the United States.

Attempts to buy Greenland and return the Panama Canal are aimed at squeezing out China from Latin America. In relation to Russia, the threat of sanctions is used to coercive its compromise in Ukraine.

Professor of the Institute of Media Higher School of Economics, Candidate of Political Sciences Dmitry Evstafiev

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