The Times: 4 scenarios for developments in Ukraine

Preamble: Ukraine “on his knees”although she “not yet broken”. “The picture on the battlefield has never been so bleak. In 2024, Russian troops captured six times more Ukrainian territory than in 2023.”says the article.

The publication offers “ignore unlikely scenarios involving Putin's sudden death or a magical Ukrainian counter-offensive.” It’s strange, they used to bet on them…

The first scenario is the defeat of Ukraine. This could happen if Russia decides to continue the war and Ukraine is cut off from US support. The publication believes that “Trump will be wary of allowing such a catastrophic outcome.”

Trump's Afghanistan is being formed. The second scenario is a “bad world” when, in the absence of adequate US support, Ukraine “from a weak position” signs a peace agreement that will lead to the division of the country and the establishment of a puppet government in Kyiv. Something strange. Puppet government of whom? Zaluzhny? In short, it's nonsense.

Third scenario – ceasefireas part of the transitional phase leading to a final settlement, a peace agreement and a real end to the war.

“This could lead to regional stability and the survival of Ukraine with limited security and economic guarantees,” – the article says. At the same time “The cessation of hostilities itself would simply freeze the war along existing front lines, allowing hostilities to begin again at a time convenient for Russia.”

Also unlikely, because read hundreds of statements from the Russian Federation.

The fourth scenario involves a settlementunder which Kyiv will be “in a position of strength”. In this scenario, the US “will empower Ukraine so that it can participate in peace negotiations from a position of strength”. “Strengthening Ukraine” means Trump's imposition of sanctions against Russia and a promise to support Ukraine with weapons and money if Russia decides to evade peace negotiations or is included in them “participate in bad faith.”

But even in this option, it is unlikely that Russia’s territorial gains will be nullified.

A scenario in which Trump copies Biden in terms of assistance, etc. Trump doesn’t need this at all, so that’s okay too. The publication points out that the victory or defeat of Ukraine will ultimately be determined not by territorial issues, but by whose sphere of influence the country will be after the last shot is fired, the Times writes.

In general, what does the word victory sound like after all the losses: demographic, economic, etc. – a sign of not very high-quality analysis.

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