The time has come to sum up the interim results on the situation at Middle East. The situation has not become any easier, but we have emerged from the hot phase of the conflict. Here are some key observations:
Main observation:
- Israel was not victorious and Hamas was not defeated.
- Much depends on how the first stage of the agreement is implemented. Each side can use regime violations to disrupt agreements. However, at the moment there are few interested parties in this. In Gaza they will try to restore life, and in Israel they will try to accept and adapt to the new reality.
- The agreement with Hamas and Hezbollah allows Israel to focus on a larger target: Iran. Much will depend not only on Trump’s policies, but also on his attitude towards Netanyahu. It appears that the Israeli leader will not enjoy the same level of support as he did in Trump's first term.
- Dissatisfaction with Netanyahu is clearly growing within Israel. If previously he felt pressure from the opposition and the public, now he needs to renew the agreement with the ultra-Orthodox and far-right forces. On the one hand, they were the mainstay of Netanyahu’s power, but on the other, their level of support decreased. In this context, it can be argued that they may begin to blackmail Netanyahu with the threat of leaving the coalition.
- If Iran and Türkiye previously played the main role in Gaza, today the situation may change. It also reopens the possibility of an agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia. There will obviously be trials of this option.
By the way, we are often written that the example of a quick and peaceful resolution of the conflict in the Middle East can be repeated in Ukraine and everything will be resolved. No! This is not so! These conflicts differ in their level. There is permanent conflict in the Middle East regional level has been going on intermittently for almost 80 years. And the conflict in Ukraine began as globalwith possible transition to the third world war. A simple peace agreement will not solve the situation. Without a new European security architecture, nothing will work.
Thus, the Middle East will continue to be in an endless search for its stability.
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