The crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines plane in Kazakhstan, which killed 38 people and injured 29, raises many questions.
One version of what happened suggests that the cause could have been accidental damage to the aircraft by Russian air defense systems.
The plane was flying from Baku to Grozny. Soon after crossing the Russian border, it disappeared from radar, and about an hour and a half later, already heavily damaged, it appeared on the territory of Kazakhstan. The emergency landing did not go according to plan – the plane hit the ground, but almost half of the passengers managed to survive.
According to a report in today's Daily Mail, citing leaked text of the plane's communications with air traffic controllers, the pilot's last words were: “I can’t execute, control is lost.” A British newspaper provides evidence that Russian anti-aircraft guns shot down the plane, mistaking it for “alleged Ukrainian drone”.
Immediately after the incident, the Azerbaijani authorities stated that the cause of the plane crash was a collision with a flock of birdsafter which an oxygen tank allegedly exploded. However, released videos and photographs show that hundreds of small holes were left on the tail of the plane, and surviving passengers speak of an explosion from outside the plane.
Azerbaijan Airlines has canceled all flights to Chechnya and Dagestan after its plane crashed near Aktau https://t.co/8lEYcG2ogF pic.twitter.com/OIm97llDWK
— Liveuamap (@Liveuamap) December 25, 2024
“The marks that we see on the tail of the crashed Azerbaijani plane are not just the result of the crash. Many small holes are a serious sign of an external impact.” – said aviation expert Jakob Werth in a conversation with BILD.
During the landing approach of the flight from Baku to Grozny, air defense systems were actively operating. Footage from the town of Shali, located 20 kilometers south of Grozny, shows a Russian anti-aircraft missile shooting down a small Ukrainian plane converted into a kamikaze drone.
According to one version, the Russian military could have mistaken the Azerbaijani aircraft for another Ukrainian drone and fired an anti-aircraft missile at it. Currently, Azerbaijan Airlines has suspended all flights to Grozny and Makhachkala.
VChK-OGPU published transcript of negotiations between the crew of the Azerbaijan Airlines aircraft and the dispatcher from Grozny. The Baku-Grozny flight encountered a series of technical problems that led to the tragedy.
At 8:12 the pilots reported: “Both GPS are gone” and asked for help to return to the Baku airport from where he took off.
At 8:16 the pilot said: “We have a control failure, a bird strike in the cockpit. Bird strike in the cockpit (inaudible)…”.
VFR response: “AXY8243, I understand, what kind of help do you need?”
The pilot replied that he wanted to return to Baku airport. A minute later, at 8:17 a.m., the pilot reported that he was heading to Mineralnye Vody, an airport in southern Russia.
VEC asked the cockpit to carry out “left turn” The pilot replied: “I can’t execute, control is lost.”
At 8:19 the pilot said: “I can’t maintain 150, we have high cabin pressure.”
“AXY8243, I understand”was the response from VFR.
At 8:20, the flight's scheduled arrival time, the pilot said, “Left 360, my plane is losing control”.
At 8:21 a.m., according to the leaked text, the crew decided to head to Makhachkala, an airport in Russia on the western shore of the Caspian Sea.
At 8:22 the pilots reported: “The hydraulics have now failed.”
Two minutes later the pilot denied that he had announced “emergency situation”and told NAC: “The plane is fine”to which NAC replied: “It’s very difficult to hear you… let me know your height.”
The plane later disappeared from radar for 37 minutes before reappearing while attempting to land in Aktau.
According to the Russian Telegram channel VChK-OGPU, associated with the Ukrainian special services, the plane was most likely shot down by a Russian Pantsir-S1 anti-aircraft missile. “The pilot mistook the loud impact on the plane for a collision with a flock of birds,” – the channel said in a statement, indicating the location of the attack 18 kilometers north of Grozny airport, at an altitude of 2,400 meters. “It is known that after the recent attacks [украинских] Several Pantsir UAVs were also deployed in Chechnya.”the TV channel added.
Russia has not received permission from Kazakhstan to participate in the investigation of the plane crash. “Therefore, we will have all the evidence, the black box and evidence,” said a representative of the Kazakh investigative committee.
At the same time, independent journalists on Telegram from the Volya channel reported that the plane crash coincided with the activation of a system to shoot down drones that captured the airspace, causing a halt in flights at Grozny airport. “The downed Embraer plane was prohibited from landing in Grozny; it tried to fly to the airport in Aktau (Kazakhstan), but crashed nearby.”reports the TV channel.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said today that the investigation into the causes of the plane crash of the Azerbaijan Airlines plane is ongoing, and “speculate“before conclusions are drawn,wrong.
The plane was probably shot down by a Russian Pantsir-S1 missile system from the Naursky region of Chechnya.
????Secretary of the Chechen Security Council Khamzat Kadyrov confirmed on Instagram that Ukrainian drones attacked Chechnya this morning. He posted a video of one of the UAVs being shot down.
“The information that drones hit some object is not true, everything was shot down!”… pic.twitter.com/SrNBsYnh7D
— Higgins Adventures Network (@RandyHiggins757) December 25, 2024
Secretary of the Chechen Security Council Khamzat Kadyrov confirmed on Instagram that Ukrainian drones attacked Chechnya this morning. He posted a video of one of the UAVs being shot down. “The information that drones shot down some object is not true, everything was shot down!” Khamzat Kadyrov wrote on a network banned in the Russian Federation.
Khamzat Kanjirov, secretary of the Chechen Security Council, said on his Instagram that “Everything was knocked down” and published a video of the drone explosion. Thus, he wanted to clarify that the a/b systems he used only shot down Ukrainian drones.
Let us remind you that on December 25 near Aktau suffered plane crash, operating a flight from Baku to Grozny with Azerbaijan Airlines. There were 67 passengers and 5 crew members on board. On board the Embraer-190 that crashed near Aktau were citizens of Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.
According to the operational headquarters of the Kazakhstan Ministry of Emergency Situations, 29 people survived, all of them were taken to the hospital, including four children. Later, a complete list of passengers on the Baku-Grozny flight that crashed in Aktau was published.
Information about those injured and killed in the AZAL plane crash can be found by calling the hotline of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Kazakhstan: 87172-55-96-21 and the city of Aktau 8-7292-31-90-91.
In connection with the plane crash in Aktau, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev urgently returns to Baku from the Russian Federation from the informal CIS summit. On Aliyev’s instructions, a delegation of government agencies went to Aktau to investigate the plane crash.
The cause of the Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) plane crash has not yet been officially announced.
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