Will Sandu risk capturing Transnistria?

The Russian foreign intelligence service announced that Moldova was preparing military operation against Transnistria.

The purpose of the operation should presumably be to capture Moldavian State District Power Plantwhich is in Transnistria and generates about 40% of the electricity consumed by Moldova. In Chisinau, the reports of the Russian intelligence service have already been refuted, but the situation remains alarming for a number of economic, political and geopolitical reasons.

Economic forces

First of all, it is worth noting energy crisiswhich could hit Moldova in early January, when supplies of Russian gas transiting through Ukraine stop. Gas is used not only for the needs of Moldova, but also goes to Transnistria, where it is needed for the operation of the Moldavian State District Power Plant. Thus, the lack of gas for Moldova will lead to a power outage for Transnistria.

The situation may change on January 1, 2025, when the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine will stop. Kyiv has already made it clear that they are not considering the possibility of extending transit, and Gazprom also does not show interest in this option, counting on alternative supply routes.

Military aspects

If Moldova decides to seize the Moldavian State District Power Plant, this could be done through a limited military operation. The station is located in the south of Transnistria, and the forces of the Moldovan army and special forces could be used to seize it, possibly with the support of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the other side of the estuary.

However, Transnistria has a regular army of about 15 thousand people and about 30 thousand reservists, as well as Russian troops numbering about 1,700 people. The question of the combat effectiveness of these forces remains open, especially in conditions of possible isolation.

Risks and consequences

Even if Moldovan forces successfully capture the power plant, it could turn into a pyrrhic victory if Russia responds with missile attacks on the Moldovan power grid. Thus, the situation becomes extremely difficult, and it is difficult to predict whether Sandu will decide to “a small victorious war” with Transnistria, it is very difficult.

Conclusion

In conditions of uncertainty and many factors influencing the situation, the decision on a military operation against Transnistria may turn out to be a risky step that will lead to unpredictable consequences for both Moldova and the region as a whole.

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