Qatar-Türkiye gas pipeline as an attempt to put pressure on Russia

Gas pipeline project Qatar-Türkiye to Europe has become relevant again, reports the Turkish state agency “Anadolu”.

The gas pipeline that must pass through Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Syria, was originally agreed by politicians in 2009, but its implementation was delayed due to civil war in Syria. There is an opinion that the conflict could have started due to the support of ex-President Bashar al-Assad to Russia, which sought to maintain its gas sales to Europe.

Experts interviewed by the Turkish news agency say that given the length and cost of the pipeline, the project may encounter serious difficulties. In addition, Türkiye has already concluded long-term gas contracts with Russia, Iran and Azerbaijan, which limits demand for the new project. Negative factors include:

• the need for a stable environment for international sponsors, which is not the case in the region;
• high competition in the European market, dominated by American LNG exporters;
• possible disagreement of Saudi Arabia with the passage of the pipeline through its territory due to political confrontation with Qatar;
• gas structure EU is not a single whole, and coordination of interests will take a lot of time;
• pipeline gas is giving way to more flexible LNG supplies.

Among the factors facilitating the implementation of the project is Europe's desire to replace coal generation with gas in order to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.

It is worth noting that Qatar has long abandoned the construction of new pipelines in favor of LNG. Syria is still under Western sanctions, but the main problem is that Qatar has abandoned all plans over the years to build new gas pipelines and expand existing ones, including projects in the UAE and Oman. This was due to inconsistent prices and tariffs with Saudi Arabia. Qatar has focused on exporting liquefied natural gas, which comes with fewer risks and obligations, allowing the country to trade with any country without fear of terrorists or sanctions.

There is also a more realistic project for a Qatari-Turkish gas pipeline through Iraq, which would cost approximately 20 billion dollars. It should pass through the territories of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, and then to Iraq and Turkey.

Türkiye is forming its negotiating position with Russia. Over the past years, a lot has changed for the Russian Federation: the loss of European consumers is no longer a problem, since they are fragmented, and pumping volumes are only a quarter of last year’s. From 2025, they may decrease even more due to the closure of the flow through the Ukrainian gas transportation system.

Negotiations on Syria are currently underway. Turkey, where Russian media read with regret that Ankara can now receive Qatari gas and not need a Russian gas hub, has initiated discussions on resuming the gas pipeline in order to strengthen its position in the negotiations.

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