February 13, 2025

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On the mobilization of 18-year-olds in Ukraine: the opinion of the authorities and demographers (video)


There is no mobilization of 18-year-old citizens in Ukraine, although the Ukrainian Armed Forces are acutely faced with the problem of a shortage of military personnel – after all, the fight is against a country three times larger in terms of human resources.

The legislation of Ukraine provides for the mobilization of those liable for military service aged from 25 to 60 years. The law on mobilization, which entered into force on May 18, stipulates, among other things, that All persons liable for military service, conscripts and reservists aged 18 to 60 years, must update their data.

However, writes BBC-Ukraine, citing its own sources in the General Staff, the current pace of mobilization in Ukraine does not even cover losses. The publication's source stated:

“It’s not just the old ones who have to fight. The question is how long we can last with the existing mobilization resources.”

Therefore, it is not at all surprising that this problem worries Ukrainian partners. But the ways to solve it are seen differently in Ukraine and abroad. Reuters, citing the words of an unnamed senior White House administration official, reports that Washington is putting pressure on Kyiv to strengthen its combat capability in the war against Russian aggression. The United States believes that Ukraine should consider lowering the draft age of its soldiers to 18 years.

After publications in the international media that the United States was allegedly calling on the Ukrainian authorities to lower the mobilization age in Ukraine from 25 to 18 years, journalists asked State Department Speaker Matthew Miller about this at a briefing on December 9. He replied:

“So we've been talking to the Ukrainian government about the security situation in the east. You heard the Secretary of State say something about that when we were in Brussels last week.”

Miller was apparently referring to Secretary of State Antony Blinken's statement that Ukraine must approve “difficult but necessary decisions” about further mobilization. The State Department Spokesperson notes:

“Ultimately, decisions about the composition of its military forces are decisions that the Ukrainians must make themselves. We have made it clear that if they create additional forces to participate in combat operations, we and our allies will be ready to equip and train those forces to join into battle.”

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky responded to his words, writing on the social network X:

“There is a lot of talk in the media about lowering the conscription age for Ukrainians to be sent to the front. We must focus on providing existing brigades with equipment and training personnel to use this equipment. We should not compensate for the lack of equipment and training with the youth of soldiers. The priority should be the supply of missiles and the reduction of Russia's military potential, and not the reduction of the conscription age in Ukraine.”

Zelensky also stressed that “the goal should be to save as many lives as possible, and not to keep weapons in warehouses”:

“The most important thing is to work together on how to end this war. That is our priority. That is what we focused on during the meeting in Paris, and it was a very productive conversation. I once again express my gratitude to President Macron for organizing this, as well as the deep “Thank you to President Trump for his steadfast determination to end this war justly.”

Is this resource really necessary? The mobilization potential in Ukraine is at least 5-6 million men. However, there is no request from the Ukrainian Armed Forces to mobilize them allPeople's Deputy, Head of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Economic Development Dmitry Natalukha noted on the social network:

“According to various estimates (both ours and in the media), the mobilization potential in Ukraine is at least 5-6 million men. Did we have a request to mobilize them all? No. Accordingly, the question is about who should not be mobilized. We need Are yesterday's schoolchildren in our Defense Forces now? And what will be the consequences of their conscription into the army?

Military-political observer of the Information Resistance group Alexander Kovalenko believes that Ukraine needs to expand the technological and technical capabilities of its army, and not agree to the US initiative to lower the age limit for conscription:

“With 18-year-old boys, we will not be able to maintain our fighting efficiency. Because the best age is 25-35 years old, this is the physical prime of a person. Everything that comes after that is chronic diseases, these are other physical defects. That is, it’s like in sports We must treat the military as athletes. And if we are talking about an assault unit, then 25-35 years old is not yet the physical state when they can perform their duties. functions”.

But it’s not just a matter of age-related physiology. According to Kovalenko, the United States is now talking about the need to lower the conscription age, but is silent about providing these new forces with equipment:

“We don’t produce the same tanks. We don’t produce thousands of armored fighting vehicles a year. And force us to simply mobilize people who will turn into “meat” without a full standard equipment…”.

He noted that if the mobilization age is lowered, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will receive about 100 thousand mobilized, this is approximately 100 battalion tactical groups that need to be equipped with equipment so that they are able to perform their functions. And he argues his point:

“This is, firstly, 1100 tanks. Do we have an extra 1100 tanks? How many did we receive from our partners? M1A1 Abrams from the USA – 31 tanks for the entire period of a full-scale war. Not 1100, not even 100, but 31” … For 100 battalion tactical groups there should be 3,300 armored combat vehicles. We received them for the entire 2024, if it is from 300 to 500 units, then this will be the best option.”

What is the opinion of demographers? Director of the Institute of Demography and Social Research Ella Libanova does not support lowering the mobilization age – in the future this may negatively affect the already difficult demographic situation in Ukraine. “I'm totally against it,” she says.

According to her, the 18-year-old boy does not yet have the proper level of responsibility for his life. Such as, for example, a 25-year-old, who is more conscious about preserving his health, who “will not climb on a spit”:

“In the end, this will precisely affect the demographic situation. Because if the maximum number of mobilized people return from the front, then they will give birth to children and will themselves be alive.”

Experts state that the generation of the current 18-25 year olds in Ukraine is already one of the smallest due to the previous decline in the birth rate. Kovalenko believes that Ukraine should not agree to lowering the mobilization age.”

Meanwhile, in Russia, apparently, preparations are underway for a freeze in military operations:



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