There is no doubt, says the European Copernicus Observatory, that 2024 will be the hottest year on record.
Everything indicates that he is also the first will exceed the 1.5°C temperature rise limit above pre-industrial times set in the Paris AgreementService (C3S) reports in its monthly newsletter:
“After the second-warmest November on record for the planet's surface, 2024 is almost certain to be the warmest year on record, with average temperatures 'surpassing' 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.”
November, marked by a series of devastating typhoons in Asia and the continuation of historic droughts in southern Africa and the Amazon region, was 1.62°C warmer, than any ordinary November in an era when humanity did not burn oil, gas or coal in industrial enterprises. scale.
According to the Copernicus ERA5 database, November was the 16th out of the last 17 months in which an anomaly of 1.5°C compared to the period 1850-1900.
This symbolic limit is consistent with the most ambitious limit of the Paris Agreement (2015) to limit global temperature rise to below 2°C and continue efforts to keep it below 1.5°C if possible.
This agreement, however, refers to long-term trends. The average increase in this temperature must last for at least 20 years before the limit can be considered exceeded. According to this criterion, climate warming over this period is about 1.3°C. The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (GIEC) estimates that the 1.5°C barrier is likely to be exceeded between 2030 and 2035.
This will depend on the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions from human activities, which are close to peaking but showing no signs of declining. The world is not on track to cut carbon pollution enough to avoid worsening droughts, heat waves or heavy rains that kill people and devastate economies, according to the latest UN estimates.
According to the UN Environment Agency, current government policies are leading the world to a “catastrophic” rise in global temperatures of +3.1°C over the course of the century, in other words 2.6°C above what was promised.
Until February Governments must submit revised 2035 climate targets to the United Nationsknown as nationally determined contributions.
However, an agreement on the floor at COP29 at the end of November risks being used to justify low-level commitments. Developing countries receive $300 billion in promised aid annually from rich countries by 2035. In other words, less than half the amount they asked for to finance their energy transition and address the damage they are suffering due to climate change.
Moreover, the Baku meeting ended without an explicit commitment to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels, although this was precisely the commitment made in Dubai at COP28.
Natural disasters caused by global warming caused $310 billion in damages internationally in 2024reinsurance group Swiss Re calculated on Thursday.
In 2023, the natural phenomenon El Niño, combined with man-made global warming, caused global temperatures to rise to record highs. So what explains the new peak in 2024? Climatologist Robert Wauthard explains that the year following an El Niño is “often warmer than the previous one,” and after a peak between December and January, the heat spreads “throughout the year.”
In 2024, “the decline in temperature was very slow and the reasons need to be analyzed,” he added before traveling to a GIEC working meeting in Kuala Lumpur:
“For now it remains within the relatively expected forecast range, but unless temperatures drop again, especially in 2025, we will have to ask questions.”
A study published last week in the journal Science suggests that Earth will reflect less solar energy in 2023 due to fewer low-altitude clouds and, to a lesser extent, fewer floating ice floes. According to Copernicus, writes CNN Greece, In Antarctica, the number of floating ice sheets remains at historic lows and is set to continue, with a new record ice melt recorded in November.
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