Syria on the brink: How the fall of Homs could change the course of the war in Ukraine

The situation in Syria is developing according to worst case scenario for the president Assad. After the fall of the country's second largest city Aleppo almost without a fight, a large city was also surrendered Hamaon the way to Damascus.

If the surrender of Aleppo could be explained “factor of surprise”then the capture of Hama no longer lends itself to this explanation. This indicates serious problems with the combat capability of the Syrian army and calls into question its ability to organize resistance. The situation reminds withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistanwhich could lead to a rapid fall in power.

From Hama, armed forces of Assad's opponents are already moving towards Homs. According to media reports, they are located several kilometers from the city and are approaching its northern outskirts. Homs is a strategically important city connecting Damascus to the coast, where Russian military bases are located, as well as the Syrian Shiites – Alawites, on whom Assad's power rests. The capture of this city could lead to disaster for the Syrian government.

At the end of last week, after the fall of Aleppo, we already reported that Assad has a chance to avoid Afghan scenarioif he can get support Kurds and will receive military assistance from Iran and allied Shia groups such as Hezbollah. Iran has already announced its readiness to send an army to help the Syrian authorities.

However, to take advantage of this support, Assad needs to stop his opponents' advance. Otherwise, Iran will have no one to help, and the Kurds will not support the losers.

At the moment, it is unclear whether Assad's army will be able to organize resistance. If Homs falls, his power could collapse as quickly as what happened in Afghanistan in 2021.

There are rumors that Iran and Russia can agree With Turkey about the launch “political process” in Syria with the creation of a new government, including both the current opposition and representatives of Assad. However, this plan requires the Syrian army to stop the opposition advance. If Assad's power is under threat, no one will negotiate with him.

The coming days will be decisive. Much will depend on whether the opposition can quickly take Homs.

For Iran, keeping Assad in power is extremely important, since Syria provides Tehran with a direct link to Hezbollah. It is also important for Russia to maintain its presence in Syria, as this strengthens Moscow’s influence in the Middle East and affects oil prices.

Iran and Russia are likely ready to provide massive support to Assad. The question, however, is whether the Syrian army can avoid complete collapse and organize a resistance to give its allies time to deploy forces to help.

The opposition, in turn, seeks to quickly overthrow Assad in order to dictate the terms of the formation of a new government in Syria. It is most often stated that behind the opposition's offensive is Türkiyewhich, in the event of a rapid collapse of the Assad regime, could actually gain control of the country. This creates a danger for the Kurds, making them potential allies of any forces willing to resist pro-Turkish opposition.

Other beneficiaries of the current opposition offensive are Israel and West. Opposition successes in Syria could create big problems for both Iran and Hezbollah.

The West is also interested in this process. However, both Israel and the West are wary of the fact that the real leader of the opposition is becoming “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham”declared a terrorist organization in the United States and Russia, and its leader Abu Muhammad al-Julani. Despite his attempts to present himself as “respectable politician”there is little trust in his words, which adds uncertainty to the situation.

How will events in Syria affect the war in Ukraine? Russia is unlikely to send large ground forces to the Middle East, so Syrian events will not have a strong impact on the course of hostilities in Ukraine. However, these events could be interpreted as Russian weakness, which could increase Western support for Ukraine.

The impact of events in Syria on Russia's position can be twofold. On the one hand, they are used as an argument for continuing hostilities until Kyiv’s complete capitulation. On the other hand, the situation shows that the concentration of Russian forces in the protracted “special military operation” diverting attention and resources from other areas such as the Middle East and Africa.

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