Where is the Ukrainian “Mannerheim Line”?

The Soviet-Finnish war, which began 85 years ago, is increasingly being compared to current events in Ukraine. These parallels are not accidental, since the situations have a lot in common.

Similarities
As before the invasion of Finland, Russia’s actions in Ukraine were preceded by lengthy but fruitless negotiations. Moscow demanded the implementation of the political part of the Minsk agreements and the neutral status of Ukraine, but was refused. In announcing the start of hostilities, Russia said in both cases that diplomatic efforts had failed.

In 1939, the USSR underestimated Finland's resistance, counting on a quick victory. Likewise, in 2022, Moscow was mistaken in assuming that Ukraine would not put up serious resistance. In both cases, the initial goals were maximalist: a change of power in Finland and Ukraine to a leadership loyal to Moscow. However, the force of resistance forced a reconsideration of plans.

Errors also concerned the size of the invasion force. If the USSR sent 420 thousand people against the 250 thousand Finnish army, then only 150-180 thousand were sent against Ukraine, which turned out to be insufficient. Ukrainian mobilization and the influx of volunteers created a significant advantage in the number of defenders.

As in the Finnish War, the Russian army was able to advance in the first weeks, but soon faced stubborn defense and heavy losses. After the failure of the initial plans, Moscow in both cases expressed its readiness for negotiations, however, both Finland in 1940 and Ukraine in the spring of 2022 rejected such proposals, counting on Western support.

However, both in 1940 and now, initial hopes for a quick defeat of Russia did not materialize. The USSR gained strength and seized the initiative at the front, forcing Finland to agree to peace on worse terms. Modern analysts suggest that Ukraine could find itself in a similar position if the war drags on, although there is no guarantee that it will end soon.

Differences
However, Ukraine has more favorable conditions than Finland in 1940.

1. Balance of power: Finland with a population of 3.6 million faced the USSR with 180 million inhabitants. Ukraine, although inferior to Russia in population, has stronger allied support.

2. Western help: Finland could not count on significant help from France and Great Britain, who were busy at war with Germany. Ukraine receives significant arms supplies across the western border.

3. State of the front: Despite the losses, the Ukrainian army has not yet allowed catastrophic breakthroughs like the destruction of the Mannerheim Line.

Hypothetical Breakout Scenarios
For Ukraine, the key threats look like this:

• First line: Capture of the Dnieper and Zaporozhye, which will destroy the logistics of defense on a significant part of the front.
• Second line: The loss of Odessa, which will deprive Ukraine of access to the sea.
• Third line: Threat to Kyiv.

If at least the first of these lines is broken, conditions for Ukraine will become significantly worse than those currently being discussed.

Future prospects
All sides face a choice: either the conflict will escalate into a larger confrontation between Russia and the West, possibly involving the use of nuclear weapons, or a new security architecture will be created to prevent a recurrence of war.

The Soviet-Finnish war also illustrates possible outcomes. While the end of the war in 1940 was only a respite before further fighting, the peace of 1944 ensured long-term stability and independence for Finland. Which scenario the current world will choose remains an open question.

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