CNN: The US will lift sanctions on Russia for the sake of a peace agreement with Ukraine

Journalists learned details of the plan Keith Kelloggwhich Trump will appoint special envoy for the settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian war.

In his post, the elected president told to the world, what the end of the war in Ukraine might look like. And this will be, to put it mildly, a big diplomatic issue, writes the American publication CNN.

Kellogg mainly criticizes Biden's actions, arguing that his administration has provided too much too little lethal help too late. He says Trump's decision to provide first lethal aid to Ukraine in 2018 has demonstrated the necessary strength to confront Putin, and that Trump's soft approach to the Kremlin chief – without demonizing him as Biden does – will allow him to cut a deal.

Kellogg argues that more weapons should have been provided before and immediately after the Russian attack to allow Ukraine to prevail. But it is here that the plan – which, as reported CNNTrump's future national security adviser considers, no longer suits Ukraine.

Kellogg says the United States does not need to be involved in another conflict and its own weapons stockpile has been hit by aid to Ukraine, leaving the country potentially vulnerable in the event of a conflict with China over Taiwan. He argues that Ukraine's membership in NATO – in fact a very distant prospect, symbolically offered to Kyiv as a sign of solidarity – should be postponed indefinitely “in exchange for a comprehensive and verifiable peace deal with security guarantees“

First of all, the plan assumes that “It should be official US policy to seek a ceasefire and a negotiated settlement.”

In the future, US assistance – likely in the form of a loan – will depend on how Ukraine negotiates with Russia, and the US will arm Ukraine to the extent that it can defend itself and stop any further Russian offensives before and after any peace transactions. That last proposal may be outdated given Moscow's rapid advance in eastern Ukraine, and the current high level of U.S. aid is already making Kellogg uncomfortable. Kellogg partially refers to the article 2023 Richard Haas and Charles Kupchan using the following ideas.

Freezing fronts

The fronts will be frozen with a ceasefire and a demilitarized zone will be established. For agreeing to this, Russia will receive a limited lifting of sanctions, and a full lifting – only after signing a peace deal that suits Ukraine. A tax on Russian energy exports will be used to rebuild Ukraine. Ukraine will not be asked to refuse to restore the occupied territories, but it will agree to achieve this exclusively through diplomatic means. She accepts that “This will require a future diplomatic breakthrough, which probably won't happen until after Putin leaves office.”

It's quite simple and fast in its approach. But it fails to account for what Moscow will demand, and what it has used in the diplomatic process in the past: the cynical pursuit of military successes. The frozen fronts will lead to very violent months ahead as Moscow seeks to seize as much territory as possible. The Kremlin has in the past ignored ceasefires and pursued its territorial goals – often while openly denying it.

The demilitarized zone will likely have to be secured, perhaps by placing NATO troops or soldiers from other neutral countries between the two sides. It will be difficult to maintain and staff, to say the least. It will be huge, stretching across hundreds of miles of border, and will require significant financial investment.

Arming Ukraine enough to stop current and future Russian offensives will also be challenging. The plan notes that the United States produces 14,000 artillery shells caliber 155 mm per month, which Ukraine can spend in just 48 hours. It's ironic that Kellogg wants the US to arm Ukraine more, but also admits that it really can't do that.

Changing values

Two lines give a broader insight into the author's thinking. He says the national security approach “America First” concerned practical needs.

“Biden replaced Trump's approach with a liberal internationalist one that promoted Western values, human rights and democracy.”he writes. This is a rather grim basis on which to build a compromise on European security.

He adds that some critics of continued aid to Ukraine – of whom he seems to count himself – “concerned about whether America's vital strategic interests are at risk in the war in Ukraine, the potential involvement of U.S. military forces, and whether America is engaged in a proxy war with Russia that could escalate into a nuclear conflict.”

These two sentences provide the final context for the proposed deal: that Ukraine's war is about values ​​we don't need to support, and we must back down from Putin's nuclear threat. This is the opposite of the current unity, in which the West prioritizes its lifestyle and security values, based on the lesson of the thirties that appeasing dictators does not stop.

The plan provides Ukraine with a welcome opportunity to end the violence at a time when it is failing on all fronts and in dire need of basic human resources—an obstacle it may never overcome and where Russia will likely always be ahead of it.

But he begins a process in which cunning and treacherous Putin will enjoy. Taking advantage of the ceasefire and the weaknesses of the West is his forte, a moment he has been waiting for for almost three years. The plan accepts Western fatigue, that its arms production cannot keep up, and that its values ​​are wasteful. He also doesn't consider what Russia will do to destroy his vision.

It's a grim compromise for a grim war. But he may not end it, but instead open a new chapter where Western unity and support begins to erode and Putin moves both at the negotiating table and on the front lines closer to his goals.

Editor's note: journalists CNN No wonder they doubt the feasibility of this “peace plan”. Americans still continue to evaluate “everyone overseas”How “lower beings”who only sleep and see how to get a piece of grace from the USA, probably not realizing that the world “there beyond the ocean” a little different.

Putin. He will likely use the proposed terms to strengthen his position, but will not make significant concessions unless this leads to clear benefits for Russia.

Zelensky. He will most likely insist on restoring control over the occupied territories and will not agree to conditions that do not ensure the security and sovereignty of Ukraine.

At this time, given the current political environment and historical precedents, unlikelythat Putin and Zelensky will agree to this option without significant changes in terms and conditions. This means the war will continue…

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