Power steering: for mass production "Pine Nut" a minimum of ten tests must be carried out

The Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine talks about the features of the experimental missile that flew down the Dnieper on November 21.

The head of the department, Kirill Budanov, claims that as of October 2024, the Russian Federation was supposed to produce two experimental missiles from the Kedr missile system, one of which flew along the Dnieper:

“I say it again. The rocket is experimental. We know for sure that as of October we should have made two prototypes, maybe we made a little more, but believe me, this is a prototype, but not yet mass production, thank God.”

The head of the Main Intelligence Directorate noted that “Oreshnik” (that’s what Putin called the missile that attacked the Dnieper) is the name of the research work, “it’s just a code”:

“The system itself is called “Kedr”. This is an experimental system. Let’s say, it is a medium-range ballistic missile. A carrier of nuclear weapons. The fact that they used it in a non-nuclear version is, as they say, a warning from them that they are completely We're not crazy.”

Deputy Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the MOU Vadim Skibitsky told reporters that for mass production Russia needs to have up to ten units of the new ballistic missile, which the Russian Federation hit the Dnieper as part of its testing, quotes representative of GUR “Ukrinform”:

“If this is experimental combat use, then there will be at least ten missiles. In order to launch a missile into mass production, you need to conduct at least ten tests. We saw this on the sea-based Bulava, when half of the launches were successful and half were unsuccessful.” .

Skibitsky said that in 2018-2019 the Russian Federation began a new research and development work called “Kedr RV”. This work was aimed at developing a missile system to replace the RS 24 Yars, a missile that was in service with the Soviet Union and is now on combat duty in the Russian Federation. The first test of this rocket was carried out in June 2021 from the Plesetsk cosmodrome.

The development of the Kedr missile system was carried out on the basis of the Rubezh missile system, however, according to Skibitsky, “something went wrong” with the Russians, and they stopped this development in 2017. But the Russian Federation opened a new development project, which it called “Oreshnik”.

A Ukrainian intelligence official explains:

“This is, in fact, an integral part of the Kedr, because the Kedr envisaged the creation of a new missile to replace the Yars, both silo-based and mobile-based. And our assessment is that the work of the Oreshnik involved the creation of a mobile port that would was not attached to the mine.”

The Main Intelligence Directorate spoke in more detail about the ballistic missile from the Kedr missile system that hit the Dnieper:

“The flight time of this Russian missile from the moment it was launched in the Astrakhan region until it hit the city of Dnepr was 15 minutes. The missile was equipped with six warheads: each equipped with six submunitions. The speed at the final part of the trajectory was more than Mach 11.”

The Main Intelligence Directorate notes that a number of enterprises of the Russian military-industrial complex have been involved in the development of the Kedr mobile missile system: – JSC “Corporation “Moscow Institute of Thermal Engineering” (Moscow); JSC “Federal Research and Production Center “Titan-Barricades” ( Volgograd); JSC “Main Special Design Bureau “Prozhektor” (Moscow); JSC Concern Constellation (Voronezh); JSC Research and Production Enterprise Spetsenergomekhanika (Moscow); LLC Research Center for Special Equipment and Conversion Continent (Moscow).

Tests of the Kedr missile system took place at the “4th State Central Interspecific Test Site of Russia” (Kapustin Yar, Astrakhan region) in October 2023 and June 2024.

The United States has officially confirmed that Russia struck the Dnieper on the morning of November 21 with a ballistic missile that was created on the basis of the RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile.

On November 22, the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense announced that on November 21, the aggressor state Russia struck the territory of Ukraine using a ballistic missile, probably from the Kedr missile system.

Vladimir Putin in his address actually confirmed the US data, saying that during the morning attack on the Dnieper on November 21, the Russians used the Oreshnik medium-range missile. He stated that “Hazel’s testing was successful and will continue.”

The President of the Russian Federation claims that “the Oreshnik system is not a modernization of old Soviet systems, it is the result of a new development” and is already preparing for mass production. The commander of the Russian Missile Forces, Colonel General Sergei Karakaev, emphasized that the missile is capable of hitting targets throughout Europe, having no analogues in the world.

Meanwhile, the military analysts The Institute for the Study of War considers this part of an information campaign aimed at exaggerating Russia's capabilities and putting pressure on the West and Ukraine.

The head of the Main Intelligence Directorate, Lieutenant General Kirill Budanov, noted that the development of the Kedr has been ongoing since 2018-2019. ISW cannot independently confirm these claims, but agrees that the November 21 strike does not demonstrate new Russian capabilities:

“Russia is benefiting from the hype about the November 21 strike and is likely hoping that increased concerns over the Oreshnik missile launch will prompt the West to reduce its support for Ukraine.”

Russia may further test launch the same or similar ballistic missiles in the coming days to achieve a similar emotional effect, ISW analysts say.

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