How Russia can respond to possible long-range missile strikes

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The situation around possible attacks by Western long-range missiles on Russian territory, as reported by Western media, is becoming increasingly complicated and multi-layered.

At the moment, there is no official confirmation from the US, UK, France or Ukraine that such strikes will actually be carried out. However, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky hinted at the possibility of such actions, which adds uncertainty to the situation.

Developments

American media clarified that the permission to use ATACMS missiles applies, at least, only to the Kursk region of Russia. This limitation may indicate that the strikes will not be widespread. Later, information appeared that France and Great Britain did not give permission for attacks with their missiles, and the French publication that originally published this news deleted the article. The French Foreign Minister also confirmed that Paris has not lifted its ban on long-range strikes.

Thus, the situation with possible strikes is becoming increasingly confusing and it is unclear which of the media reports is true and which is disinformation. However, there has not yet been an official denial of permission to strike Russia, at least using ATACMS missiles. This leaves open the question of how Russia might respond.

Possible reactions from Russia

1. Military response: Putin has previously said that strikes by Western long-range missiles would be regarded as direct NATO intervention in the conflict. He updated nuclear doctrine to include the possibility of a nuclear response to such actions. Moscow has also repeatedly stressed that it will give a military response to such actions. However, if the strikes are limited to the Kursk region, they may not have a decisive impact on the course of the war.

2. Political consequences: Failure to respond to such strikes could lead to other red lines being crossed, such as Russian missiles being shot down over Ukraine by NATO air defenses or Western troops entering Ukraine. This could significantly change the balance of power in the conflict, which would be extremely undesirable for Russia.

3. Internal pressure: Inside Russia, there is pressure on the Kremlin from those who advocate a tough response. These forces highlight “indecisiveness” authorities if no answer is given. However, a military response could complicate negotiations with Trump to end the war, which could be beneficial “war party” in the West, seeking to prolong the conflict.

4. Hybrid answer: The Kremlin may consider the possibility “hybrid” a response that would not be an immediate military strike, but would make it clear that such a strike was possible in the future, after Trump's inauguration. This could become the basis for negotiations with him in order to prevent a global conflict.

5. Involvement of allies: Moscow may try to involve North Korea. Taking into account that the permission for “long-range” strikes in the Western media was associated with the arrival of North Korean troops in the Kursk region, Pyongyang can declare that if they are attacked by American missiles, it will strike US troops stationed in South Korea. True, for this, the DPRK and Moscow will have to officially recognize the presence of North Korean troops in the Russian Federation.

6. Support for the Houthis: It is also possible that there will be increased support for the Houthis in their attacks on American and British warships. This could be used as a way to demonstrate that Russia has the ability to respond to Western actions through its allies.

7. Impacts on the energy system of Ukraine: Russia may respond to long-range missile strikes by intensifying attacks on the Ukrainian energy system, including attacks on nuclear power plant substations. This may be perceived as a way to demonstrate one's power and ability to strike in response to aggression.

8. Nuclear Threat: There are also hints in Moscow about the possibility of using nuclear weapons against Ukraine. This could be used as a means of intimidating the West and trying to force it to reconsider its position. And although the last option is the least likely, in the event of a significant painful blow to the territory of the Russian Federation, for example, in the Kremlinthis option may become quite probable.

Conclusion

In general, after possible long-range missile attacks on Russia, many events can happen. However, it is becoming increasingly clear that the situation is approaching to a critical point, after which either a sharp escalation of the conflict or the beginning of the path to its completion is possible. It is important to understand that with this decision our world has come even closer to “point of no return”when a local conflict escalates into an all-destroying world war.

PS In the White House still do not officially confirm, but do not deny the reports on granting permission to Ukraine to strike with long-range missiles on the territory of the Russian Federation.

“The United States has been clear throughout the conflict that it will make policy decisions based on the situation on the battlefield, including the significant escalation associated with the deployment of foreign forces on Russian territory in recent days and weeks,” – said Deputy National Security Advisor to the President of the United States John Feiner.

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