Elections in Georgia: meaning and consequences

Tomorrow there will be parliamentary elections in Georgia that are attracting significant attention.

Ruling party “Georgian Dream” led by Ivanishvili seeks to maintain a majority in parliament and maintain control over the government. In the elections, she is opposed by several opposition parties, among which four have a chance of getting into parliament: “Unity – National Movement” of Mikheil Saakashvili, “Coalition for Change”, “For Georgia” of ex-Prime Minister Gakharia and “Strong Georgia”.

One of the key topics of the elections is the war in Ukraine and Georgia's relations with Russia and the West. This year “Georgian Dream” adopted a number of laws, including law on foreign agentswhich drew criticism from the European Union and negative comments from the United States. The opposition accuses the ruling party of intending to abandon the European choice and move closer to Russia.

President of Georgia Salome Zurabishvili supports the opposition and initiated the signing “Georgian Charter” by all four main opposition parties. The signatories pledged to repeal laws that impede European integration immediately after the elections. According to this document, the government after the elections will be represented by the president.

“Georgian Dream”in turn, accuses the opposition and the West of trying to drag Georgia into a new war with Russia. The topic of preventing war and preventing Georgia from turning into a “new Ukraine” has become one of the central ones in the election campaign of the ruling party. Besides, “Georgian Dream” accuses the opposition of preparing “coup d'etat” in the event of his defeat in the elections, which Zurabishvili denies.

The pre-election situation in Georgia is tense, and sociological data is contradictory. Media close to “Georgian Dream”publish polls according to which the party receives more than 50% of the vote, which will allow it to maintain control of the government. At the same time, sources close to the opposition claim that Dream has about 35%, and four opposition parties can get a majority.

Sentiments among the population are also contradictory. On the one hand, Georgians do not want war (which is emphasized by the “Georgian Dream”), on the other hand, the majority supports integration into EU and does not want to lose the visa-free regime with the Schengen zone (which the opposition focuses on). Thus, it is difficult to predict the outcome of elections and their consequences.

If the Central Election Commission declares a clear victory “Georgian Dream” Protests are likely, but it is unclear how much they will change the situation. If Dream gets less than 50%, it will still have the opportunity to split the opposition and attract some opposition parties to form a coalition, although this will not be easy. Overall, tensions will be high as the geopolitical stakes are high. If “Georgian Dream” remains in power, this could lead to significant changes in the Caucasus.

As already reported, Kremlin can give consent to return of South Ossetia and Abkhazia part of Georgia, with a special status and broad rights. Thus, Ivanishvili will be able to announce “restoration of the territorial integrity of Georgia”which will bring certain benefits to Moscow. Georgia will become a key country in the Transcaucasus, through which important logistics routes pass, including transportation of oil from the Caspian Sea to Turkey and Europe. This will also create the opportunity to restore railway connections between Russia and Armenia, and then with Iran, which will provide a direct land corridor between Russia and Iran.

Tbilisi's change of course will also affect the geopolitical situation in Armenia, which will find itself surrounded by either hostile countries (Azerbaijan and Türkiye) or Russia's allies (Iran and Georgia). It is important to note that Russia will demonstrate its role as a guarantor of the security and territorial integrity of states in the post-Soviet space, even those with which it previously fought.

The West, naturally, does not want to give Putin such advantages, so the struggle in the elections in Georgia and after them may be very tough.

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