Netanyahu's Election Bid: What's Happening Around Iran's Response to Israel

Media after the assassination of the leader in Tehran Hamas Ismail Haniyeh almost on a daily basis they predict that Iran and Hezbollah are about to inflict some powerful blow “counter attack”.

Iran itself also talks about this constantly, but is in no hurry to move from words to deeds.Given the tense situation, it is likely that some kind of response will follow, perhaps, already todayHow predictsfor example, Blinken.

However, Iran's behavior (as in the previous case after the Israeli strike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus) shows that Tehran is not very eager for escalation, unlike Israel, which is practically directly challenging the Persians to a fight. But Iran is in no hurry to fight this battle. Why?

GThe main reason is the completely different “stakes” of Iran and Israel in the US elections. Iran needs a victory for the Democrats, who benefit from even a temporary peace in the Gaza Strip (and they don’t need a big war in the Middle East before the elections). Israel (or rather Netanyahu and his associates) needs a victory for Trump. If Harris wins, Netanyahu will face very difficult times. That’s why he needs the war in the Gaza Strip to continue. And perhaps even spread to another region (which will create even greater difficulties for the Democrats). In fact, this is what all the actions of the Israeli authorities are currently aimed at, including the murder of Haniyeh, which has sharply complicated any agreements on Gaza and increased the likelihood of a large-scale war.

The overall development of the situation in the Middle East also depends on who wins in Washington. The operation in the Gaza Strip has shown a fundamental change in the balance of power in the region. The Israeli army is no longer the unambiguously dominant force. After many months of fighting, it has not been able to destroy Hamas, despite having an overwhelming advantage in manpower and weapons, as well as complete air superiority. In the event of a clash with the much more militarily powerful Hezbollah, not to mention Iran, Israel's chances of victory look, to put it mildly, ambiguous. Even the use of nuclear weapons by the IDF will not change the situation – the small arsenal at the Israelis' disposal will not allow them to completely destroy Iran, but Israel may find itself facing international isolation. Therefore, Netanyahu's only chance of winning a major war is if the United States openly takes Israel's side.

If Trump wins, the probability of this will be quite high. If the Democrats win, it is extremely low. Especially if Israel itself initiates the war. According to Western media, Biden has already warned Netanyahu that NATO countries will help Israel repel the Iranian “response” to kill Hania, but if Israel provokes Iran again, the West will no longer come to the rescue and will not shoot down the missiles. By the way, today there was information that Netanyahu is considering option of launching a preemptive strike on Iran if the Israeli leadership concludes that an Iranian attack is “inevitable.” And if Israel does so, it will be a virtual carbon copy of Putin’s actions toward Ukraine.

Moscow, we recall, justified the invasion by the fact that Ukraine was allegedly preparing an offensive against the “LDNR,” and therefore the Russian Federation launched a “preemptive strike” based on the principle: “If a fight is inevitable, strike first.” It is clear that under such conditions it will be very difficult for Democrats to support Israel.

In addition, there are purely military-technical limitations for the Americans. Israel's actions in the Gaza Strip have turned the entire Middle East against it. And if a major war with Iran begins, the Americans will not be able to rely on their former key allies – Saudi Arabia and Turkey. They are unlikely, of course, to join Iran in a war against the US and Israel, but they will not be of much help to the States either. In such circumstances, American forces in the region will find themselves in an extremely vulnerable position.

Iran and its allies will be able to attack them at any point, also striking at sea supply lines (fortunately, the war in Ukraine showed that relatively simple to manufacture sea drones can be a serious threat to surface ships).

That's why Iran does not need a major war in the Middle East right now, which would increase Trump's chances of re-election. Iran needs to continue to maintain the conflict around Israel at the current level (to prevent it from making peace with Saudi Arabia). Then wait for the Democrats to win and for relations between the West and Netanyahu to further deteriorate, and then act according to the situation.

Netanyahu has exactly the opposite plan – to provoke an escalation, minus Harris' chances, and perhaps even risk starting a major war with Iran before the US elections, on the assumption that the Americans will be forced to “stand in” for Israel, not wanting to allow the defeat of their ally, as well as the strengthening of Tehran and the complete loss of their influence in the Middle East. And in that case, it will no longer matter who wins the elections, since the US will in fact already be drawn into the war.

P.S. Israeli authorities are discussing the possibility of a preemptive strike if they conclude that an attack by Hezbollah and Iran in response to the assassination of Haniyeh is inevitable, Ynet reports.

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