On March 11, 2020, three years ago, WHO declared a global pandemic due to the deadly outbreak of COVID-19. The spread of the coronavirus has brought about unprecedented changes around the world.
The Director-General of the World Health Organization, Tedros Adhanom, said at the time:
“Over the coming days and weeks, we expect the number of cases, the number of deaths and the number of affected countries to increase further.”
After three years, statistics showed a significant increase in the number of excess deaths worldwide. More than 6.8 million people have died directly from COVID-19, according to Johns Hopkins University. Thanks to vaccination and the emergence of weaker mutations, the threat is suppressed. However, deaths in Europe have risen sharply in recent months. To consider the reasons for this, let’s first define the concept of “excess mortality”.
Experts call this term the number of deaths that occur beyond what is expected in a certain period of time. It is measured by comparing the number of deaths in a given period of time (usually a year or month) with the average number of deaths in the same period of time in previous years. Infectious disease expert from ISGlobal Professor Kike Bassat explains:
“Mortality remains fairly stable over the years, if nothing happens. Deviations from expected mortality are very important to record, as they serve as a wake-up call.”
According to Eurostat, excess mortality across the EU in December 2022 increased by 19% compared to the average number of deaths in the same period between 2016 and 2019. In numbers: according to EuroMOMO, more than 101,000 deaths were recorded in December 2022, compared to 109,000 recorded in 2020, when SARS-COV-2 circulation was high in Europe.
However, it is important to understand that not every death from coronavirus is a death from COVID-19. Basically, the state of health is aggravated by diseases already existing in people: from cardiovascular to respiratory.
In the member countries of the European Union, excess mortality varied. In December 2022, in Eastern European countries such as Bulgaria and Romania, recorded rates were much lower than the EU average: -6% to -5.5% respectively.
At the same time, Germany, Austria, France and Ireland topped the December 2022 average. Germany recorded a staggering 37.3% increase in excess deaths this month. Researcher at the University of Tübingen Dmitry Kobak says:
“Perhaps the population now has weaker immunity against influenza compared to the period before COVID-19, because over the past two years, very few people have had the flu due to social distancing and wearing masks.”
Other factors may also contribute to the increase in excess mortality in Europe. For example, the pandemic has disrupted health systems, making it difficult for people to access care for other illnesses. This could lead to an increase in the number of deaths from causes not related to covid, such as heart disease or cancer. Dr. Jeffrey Lazarus, Head of the Health Systems Research Group at ISGlobal, says:
“[Системы здравоохранения] trying to catch up: diagnoses and delayed treatment caused by the pandemic, especially when health systems have been overwhelmed or simply understaffed. This greatly increases the current burden on healthcare systems.”
Undeniably, the pandemic’s burden on national health systems has exacerbated pre-existing pressures on hospitals and healthcare workers. Many say that they still have a hard time. Most governments were unable to cope with the extra spending that came about and they went back to pre-pandemic situations, and in some cases even worse.
Excess mortality in Europe is also associated with climate change. The climate is beginning to play an increasingly important role in human health. For example, the abnormal heat that hit Europe in the summer of 2022, when the temperature in Spain, Italy, France and the UK reached 40 degrees and lasted for quite some time. The lack of rainfall on the continent led not only to droughts, but also to deaths. More than 15,000 people have died as a result of the heatwave in Europe, according to the WHO.
What can governments do to prevent future pandemics? As we begin to think about the post-pandemic era, governments are acutely aware that our health and freedom cannot be taken for granted. But what can be done? Professor Lazarus says:
“Governments need to be proactive, not reactive. They must follow evidence-based control measures such as improving indoor air quality and promoting COVID-19 revaccination. Instead, they are trying to turn the page of the pandemic, leaving millions of Europeans sick COVID-19 or suffer from post-COVID syndrome.”
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