Putin’s new plan: referenda, declaration of war, conscription?


In the coming days, the separatist regions of Ukraine: the Lugansk and Donetsk republics, as well as Kherson and part of the Zaporozhye region, may decide to join Russia. What does this mean for Ukraine and the war?

The affairs of the Russian troops on the fronts are not going very well. And this is a good reason for great concern in Moscow, as well as for making very serious decisions.

It is known that a major counter-offensive of the Ukrainian army in Kharkov made it possible to recapture important settlements and about 8,000 square kilometers of territory. In fact, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have shown that they can threaten the so-called “people’s democracies” of Donbass, in which theoretically Russia’s sovereignty was undeniable (at least in Luhansk).

The situation that is emerging, therefore, is very different from the one that Vladimir Putin and his associates hoped for on February 24 …

Pressure on Putin

For some time now, voices have grown stronger calling on Putin to take a step that could change the facts and give Russia an advantage again: officially declare war on Ukraine instead of a “special military operation.”

This, in turn, will have immediate consequences: it will enable him, if he so desires, to continue (general or partial) military mobilization, decisively strengthening his weakened troops at the front.

Now there are clear signs that the die has been cast and that Putin has made an important decision. The “key” to the development of events will be referendums, which, according to Russia’s information, are ready to organize the governors and presidents of the regions controlled by Russia and pro-Russian separatists – in the Donbass, in Kherson and Zaporozhye.

September 20 Russian media reportedthat the referendum on the entry of the Zaporozhye region into the Russian Federation will be held from 23 to 27 September. Polling stations for referendums in Donbass, as well as polling stations in Zaporozhye and Kherson regions will operate in Russia.

Boundary change continues

“I ask you as soon as possible, in case of a positive decision of the referendum, which we have no doubt, accept the Donetsk People’s Republic as part of Russia,” the head of the Donetsk People’s Republic emphasized in his address. message to Putin.

“I am sure that the Russian leadership will accept the results of the referendum,” said Moscow-appointed Governor of Kherson Vladimir Saldo, speaking of “the triumph of historical justice.”

Dilemmas for the next day

After the referenda and the annexation of the above regions to Russia, the question is what will happen next. As for Moscow, it is likely that it will formally demand negotiations to end the war in order to consolidate its “gains”.

Kyiv, however, will face a big dilemma: will it seek to retake these areas as well, which will force Putin to declare war and mobilize the entire Russian military “machine” and engage hundreds of thousands or even millions of soldiers in the fighting? Or “freeze” the conflict, promising to give an answer in the future, when it considers it possible.

The final decision will obviously also be determined the choice of the Collective Westwithout which Ukraine cannot make such decisions on its own.

Nuclear threat in the event of an attack on the territory of Russia

At the same time, one should take into account the recent Dmitry Medvedev’s statementin which he threatened to use nuclear weapons in the event of an attack on the territory of the Russian Federation.

According to the Deputy Head of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, “encroachment on the territory of Russia (which Moscow will consider the annexed Ukrainian lands) is a crime, the commission of which allows you to use all the forces of self-defense. After the amendments to the Constitution of our state, not a single future leader of Russia, not a single official can reverse those decisions.”

Putin’s final decision

During the day pending announcement Russian President Vladimir Putin on referendums in the occupied territories of Ukraine.

According to the Russian media, in particular the publication RBC, which cites three sources in the presidential administration, Putin’s speech is expected at the end of the day. However, sources say they do not know what he will announce. Telegram channels also report that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu may also speak on September 20.

According to the Russian media, in particular the publication RBC, which cites three sources in the presidential administration, Putin’s speech is expected at the end of the day. However, sources say they do not know what he will announce. Telegram channels also report that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu may also speak on September 20.



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