Study: The contribution of foreigners to the demographics of Greece

The overall demographic balance in Greece after 2010 and for the first time after the Second World War is consistently negative, and it seems that only at the expense of foreigners “keeps afloat”.

Considering that over three decades the number of foreigners has increased (from 200,000 in 1991 to 900,000 today), the question arises of their contribution to the demographic balance of Greece.

To answer this question, based on the data ΕΛΣΤΑΤ the balance of the population – Greeks and foreigners is being studied. Scientists identify their differences, after which they summarize the main causes of the “skew”.

Вышеизложенное является предметом исследования профессоров демографии Виронаса Котзаманиса и Анастасии Костакис, представленное на 9-й конференции «Flash News», финансируемой и реализуемой EΛKE Университета Фессалии (Ερευνητικού Προγράμματος «Δημογραφικά Προτάγματα στην Έρευνα και Πρακτική στην Ελλάδα»).

According to research resultsforeigners, whose number in the period under review ranges from 0.81 to 0.94 million people (7.4-8.4% of the total population of Greece), ten years younger than the Greeks. Their average age ranges from 32 to 34 years compared to 43-46 years for the Greeks, while there are very few elderly foreigners (the percentage of 65 years and older ranges from 3% to 5% versus 20-24% for Greeks).

Foreign women make up 8.0-8.5% of all women (regardless of age) and 11%-12.5% ​​of all women childbearing agewhile they are on average somewhat younger than Greek women (by 1-2 years).

In the period 2009-2020 the mortality of foreigners is several times less than that of the Greeks (26.5 thousand compared to 378 million), and the birth rate (15.3% of the total) is 177 thousand in the same period (compared to 976 thousand Greek women). As a result, the natural excess of the number of foreigners in 2009-2020. gave a positive demographic result (150 thousand more births than deaths), and in terms of the Greeks – negative (-402 thousand).

If we move from absolute to relative values ​​(births and deaths per 1000 inhabitants), these large differences will also be reflected in the corresponding indices, since the birth rate of foreigners is more than twice that of the Greeks, and their death rate is 4-5 times lower. The contribution of foreigners to demography, therefore, was significant after 2008, significantly reduced, due to the predominance of births over deaths, population losses, since without them the overall physical balance of our country in 2009-2020. would be negative (-402, not -252 mm).

In his statements to the Athens Macedonian Agency, Mr. Kotzamanis argues that the difference between the physical balance of the two groups (positive for foreigners and negative for Greeks) is mainly due to the youth of the foreign population and much less because they usually have many children, unlike the Greeks.

The expert states that in terms of the future, given the increase in the proportion of people aged 65 and over in both of these groups, an increase in mortality is expected, while this will not happen with the birth rate.

Thus, in the coming decades, the death-birth rate for Greeks will become even more negative, while for foreigners it will remain positive.

However the excess of births over deaths of those who do not have Greek citizenship will be limited if there is no mass entry of young foreigners into our country. Based on these data, according to Mr. Kotzamanis, the average annual total demographic balance in Greece will remain negative until at least 2040-2045, but much more than in the period 2009-2020.

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