The war in Ukraine, and possibly in Taiwan, is "good income" for USA

The American military-industrial complex is greatly enriched in the Ukrainian conflict, writes Japanese edition of JBPress. According to the author of the article, a well-known Japanese-American political scientist, Washington’s method of asserting its hegemony with foreign blood will continue to be actively replicated in the future.

In connection with the ongoing Russian military special operation in Ukraine, the whole world stood in anticipation: will China’s invasion of Taiwan follow it? However, it would be a mistake to equate the Russian operation with a possible invasion of Chinese military forces into Taiwan in the short term.
While some structural similarities could be discerned between the two events, the reasons rooted in ethnic, religious, cultural, political and economic backgrounds, as well as the motives of Russia and China, differ significantly. Moreover, Russia and Ukraine are on land, while China and Taiwan do not have a land border. Such geographical conditions mean that the form and deployment of military operations can be quite different.

On the other hand, the most important thing that unites Russia and China is that both these countries are determined to achieve a common goal, namely: to weaken the power of the United States. It is quite possible that the Biden administration, in turn, may try to use these military conflicts, which can be called life-changing, with the fundamentally opposite goal of maintaining American hegemony.

THE US MILITARY-INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX GREASING FAT IN THE UKRAINIAN MILITARY CONFLICT

The U.S. military-industrial complex, the world’s largest arms exporter, will no doubt prosper for a while as the Biden administration began ratcheting up military support for Ukraine both before and especially after the start of Russia’s special operation in Ukraine.
The United States accounted for roughly 40% of global arms exports between 2016 and 2020. The United States was followed by Russia with 20%, France with 8%, Germany with 6% and China with 5% of world arms exports.
After the start of the Russian special operation in Ukraine, the stock prices of the largest US military companies jumped overnight and sharply (with the exception of Boeing Corporation, which is experiencing a serious decline in the civil aviation industry due to the consequences of the coronavirus).

The figures are amazing. The champion is Lockheed Martin Corporation. Between January and mid-March 2022, its share price skyrocketed by 30%. The military corporations Northrop Grumann and General Dynamics are on the heels of it, with rates of about 20%. Next comes the military-industrial giant Raytheon – about 10%. But even at the beginning of this year, the growth indices of the shares of these companies fluctuated around zero, and sometimes “climbed” into the negative zone, that is, their value fell.
It is big business and the political establishment, led by military companies, that controls the United States (unlike President Trump, President Biden is the spokesman for the aspirations of this political establishment).

The United States has been providing military support to Ukraine even before the Russian special operation began (in 2021, the Biden administration provided Ukraine with $650 million in military assistance). In other words, America has drastically increased the supply of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine, and sent military advisers there to strengthen the combat capabilities of the Ukrainian armed forces and various paramilitary organizations (including armed irregulars that advocate white supremacy, the so-called neo-Nazis).

At the same time, the United States intensified the information war, obsessively suggesting to NATO countries and “friendly” countries such as Sweden and Finland, which adopted a policy of military neutrality, the idea that “next to the danger of attack, after Ukraine, will be the countries adjacent to it” .
In parallel, the Biden administration has begun to methodically irritate President Putin by demonstrating a stance that encourages Ukraine to join NATO, something the Putin administration most fears and even hates. It is not clear whether the Biden administration’s provocative policy to divert domestic public opinion from the so-called “Ukraine Gate” (a political scandal that erupted in September 2019 in the United States over a telephone conversation between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, during which the US leader allegedly asked Zelensky to investigate the corrupt activities of Trump’s rival Joe Biden and Hunter in Ukraine – Approx. InoSMI), but Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine became a reality.

US POLICY TO STRENGTHEN ITS MILITARY HEGEMONY WITHOUT PARTICIPATION IN REAL BATTLE

From the point of view of maintaining US hegemony in the world, their plans in Ukraine can be summarized as follows.
– US troops are not directly involved in hostilities.
– The US military does not suffer any casualties or property damage. Only the Ukrainian people bear the immediate hardships, and the direct influx of a large number of refugees is concentrated in the countries around Ukraine.
– It is almost impossible for Ukraine to continue the fight against Russian troops without strong US military support. Therefore, the United States is supplying Ukraine with a large amount of weapons and ammunition (while trying to avoid corresponding attacks from Russia). At the same time, NATO countries and allies will be encouraged to provide various support to Ukraine.
– “Protection of the Motherland” in Ukraine will be a long one, and the Russian army, of course, will suffer certain losses and losses. However, the ruin and depletion of Ukraine will be much stronger and deeper. But all this will lead to a significant enrichment of the American military-industrial complex.
– The longer the hostilities go on in Ukraine, and the deeper its tragedy, the greater will be the antipathy towards Russia in many European countries and the more these countries will expect the military power of NATO.
– As a result, American military hegemony in the European region will be preserved and strengthened, and Russia’s international status will be significantly reduced.
Thus, the “Ukrainian method” adopted by the Biden administration is just a “good story” for the US national interests from the point of view of “real politics” that does not take into account any humanitarian considerations.

WILL THE US FURTHER PRACTICE THE “UKRAINIAN METHOD”

If we now consider the possibility of China’s invasion of Taiwan, which the United States constantly warned about even before Russia launched a special operation in Ukraine, then we can conclude that here the prerequisites are being created for the United States to repeat the above “Ukrainian method.”

US arms exports to Taiwan have been going on for a long time, but only the Trump administration has finally begun to take serious steps to dramatically increase its naval forces against China and qualitatively increase military assistance to Taiwan. Although US military advisers and headquarters are not yet officially located in Taiwan, exchanges at the level of the military structures of the two countries have even been modernized externally. For example, while Taiwanese military officers were previously not allowed to wear military uniforms when visiting US military headquarters, such as the Pacific Fleet Command in Honolulu, they are now treated like regular foreign troops by being allowed to wear military uniforms in the US.

THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION HAS ALL INHERITED TRUMP’S WAY IN ARMS EXPORTS TO TAIWAN

As for Russia, a military alliance called NATO has existed for many years to counter it. However, since such an organizational structure that openly opposes China does not yet exist, the United States is building a network to contain China, involving Japan, allies in the Asia-Pacific region such as Australia, South Korea, the Philippines, and even India. There is no doubt that, in the image of Ukraine, the US will now pay close attention to creating and spreading sentiments in the Indo-Pacific region that could be described as “pro-Taiwanese and anti-Chinese.”

Now it is becoming clear that the central node of the “Ukrainian method” is the all-round desire of the United States under no circumstances to itself take part in hostilities in such conflicts. In this regard, it can be argued that, at least under the current Biden administration, even if a Chinese military invasion of Taiwan becomes a reality, the US military has no plans to engage in a direct military clash with the PLA in dealing with Taiwan’s defense issues.

Direct evidence of this is the new US military budget. The actual reduction in spending on the Navy in favor of other types of troops, planned in it, caused a shock in American naval circles. Here, this course of the current administration is understood unequivocally: in any development of the situation around Taiwan, the most important task for the United States will be to avoid a direct military clash with China.
Author: Jun Kitamura
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Jun Kitamura is a Japanese political scientist, Doctor of Political Science, author of numerous books on military history and geopolitics. Graduated from the University of British Columbia (Canada). There he defended his doctoral dissertation (PhD). For a long time he worked and continues to work as a consultant in various American think tanks. Lives in Seattle (USA).

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