How long will the war in Ukraine last?

Renowned historian Neil Ferguson published an op-ed in Bloomberg discussing the prospects for a Ukrainian-Russian war. The material was published under the heading “The Seven Worst Scenarios of War in Ukraine”.

It is worth noting that Ferguson is a Scottish historian, writer and journalist, professor of history at Harvard University and senior fellow at Oxford University. edition.

Assessing the “worst” possible scenario, he draws parallels with Poland in 1939. The journalist is sure that such a development of events, in the end, can lead to the Third World War, through a chain of conflicts. Ferguson admits the prospect of a nuclear war, arguing that Putin will not be able to resist NATO “on the ground”.

According to the author’s forecast, China will support Russia, “but not to such an extent as to cause secondary US sanctions against Chinese institutions doing business with Russian organizations.” The world is facing serious inflation, the consequences of which, in the first place, will be faced by countries dependent on exports from Russia and Ukraine.

Answering the question about the duration of the war in Ukraine, the historian cites statistical data on the average duration of conflicts for the period 1816-1985. More than 60% of wars lasted less than six months, and 23% – less than 2 years. More than two years, the war continued in 19% of all conflicts.

According to the same statistics, the prospect of ending the war due to a change of power in the Russian Federation is negligible.



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