The conflict in Ukraine and its consequences for the world order

British think tank Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) published an article where he considers a number of key changes that will have an impact on the already changed geopolitical map of the world.

Firstly, Moscow’s actions in Ukraine are likely to lead to division within Europe.

Secondly, Russia’s actions “are a blatant challenge to the role of the United States as a global policeman” and in this regard it is concluded that “the world has become much more unstable and dangerous.”

Thirdly, “The war in Ukraine will deepen Russia’s strategic alliance with China.”

Fourth, Another aspect of the transformation of the world in the EIU is considered the acceleration of the split into two hostile camps: that is, into the collective West and Russia with its allies and partners.

Separately, the material notes that the growing attention to European security will hinder the development of the Asian vector of US policy. Forced to use all their diplomatic resources in Europe, the Americans will find themselves in a difficult position in their efforts to counter a rising China. This is to the question of whether the current “Ukrainian crisis” is beneficial to China.

Nevertheless, not a virtual, but a very real weakening of the US on the Asian track is bad news for Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, which counted on more protection and support from the US.

It is also curious that Germany has radically changed its policy, deciding not only to supply weapons to Ukraine, but also to invest 100 billion euros in its own armed forces, increasing defense spending to more than 2% of GDP. New German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called Germany’s foreign policy maneuver in defense policy Zeitenwende, that is, a turning point, a new era. In general, it can be stated that today Germany has decided to reconsider the lessons of the Second World War, to start playing a much greater role in determining European priorities in the field of defense, foreign policy and security. This not only changes the balance of power in Europe, but may become for Russia and even the whole world one of the most dangerous consequences of the geopolitical transformations that we are witnessing today.

At the same time, Europe itself found itself in a new reality for itself and must decide where its place is in the new global order. The EIU believes that Brussels will have to decide how to ensure its security. The US will certainly remain the dominant power in NATO, but the balance of power is likely to shift in the coming years as European powers, led by France and Germany, become more assertive.

According to British analysts, the world will increasingly be divided into “authoritarian and democratic”. The very fact that all countries have begun to divide into two camps may indicate that the modern system of international relations is smoothly returning to the Cold War.

The only question is where will the new “Berlin Wall” take place: in Ukraine or somewhere else?



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