Economist: real death rate from pandemic “reaches” 20 million

According to the British magazine, the real number of deaths from the coronavirus is 3.5 times higher than the officially recorded one. And here the gap between rich and poor countries is huge.

The nearly 5.5 million Covid-19 deaths worldwide that have been officially reported in the past two years are already a very large and frightening number. However, there is a lot of evidence from experts who agree that the real cost of human lives is even greater, making the pandemic a tragedy of historic proportions.

According to The Economist, the number of deaths associated with the Sars-Cov-2 virus is almost four times the official and is estimated at 18.8 million! In fact, the error in the calculation, according to which the real death toll is from 11.8 to 21.9 million, is only 5%!

Extra number method

According to the report, the most correct methodology in this case is to compare deaths in a region or country over a certain period of time, regardless of the cause. In other words, a comparison of the amount that would be expected under normal circumstances and the amount recorded in the two years that Covid has existed. In this way, it is possible to calculate the “excessive number of deaths” directly or indirectly caused by the virus.

According to the report justifying the above methodology, the answer to the question “how many people have died so far due to the Covid-19 pandemic” depends “on both the available data and how they are determined.”

The authors continue: “Many people who die from Sars-Cov-2 infection have never tested positive and are not included in official reports. Conversely, some of the deaths attributed to Covid-19 were caused by other illnesses that could have caused them to end their lives at the same time. “What also happens to people who die of preventable or treatable causes during a pandemic because hospitals are full of Covid patients and cannot provide them with treatment?”

900% more in Africa, 700% more in Asia!

Based on the foregoing, it does not take much thinking or special knowledge to understand that the countries and regions where there is a discrepancy between the official data and the actual number of deaths are the poorest and most degraded. And this is fully reflected in the Economist’s mathematical model tables that highlight yet another dimension of global inequality beyond vaccine access and health systems.

In Asia, it turns out, “excessive deaths” are leading to a figure that is 700% higher than the official figure of 1.262 million. In Africa, the situation is even worse, with a deviation of 900% compared to the officially declared “only” 228,500 deaths.

The difference is felt in Europe too. Thus, if for the “27” of the European Union the real number is estimated to be 30% higher than the official one (as in North America), then when the calculation is made for all countries of the continent, the deviation jumps to 80%.

As for Russia, which is in “dark red” (as opposed to China, where the picture is clearly better), another aspect of the data inconsistency is revealed.

Comparing deaths from coronavirus across countries is challenging due to the different counting methods. For example, Belgium included in the final statistics of mortality from Covid-19 even those deaths where there was at least a suspicion of being infected with the coronavirus. As a result, Belgium has much higher data on deaths from coronavirus than others.

By different estimates, in contrast to the official figure of the victims of the coronavirus (312 thousand at the beginning of 2022), the excess mortality in the Russian Federation is at least 6.3 times more and is approaching 2 million.

WHO also warns

It is worth noting that The Economist did not “discover America.” This is because many agree – the actual number of deaths due to Covid is much higher than the official one.

The World Health Organization, commenting on the data for the first year (2020), says in an official statement that instead of 1,813,188 deaths recorded worldwide as of December 31, “the total number of deaths that can be attributed to Covid-19 is not less than 3 million “.

For its part, the Financial Times notes: “The number of officially confirmed deaths worldwide is close to 5.5 million, but experts note that this figure is likely to significantly underestimate the true costs of the pandemic in a person’s life.”

The 1918 flu (Spanish flu) would kill 75 million people!

The data makes Covid-19 the deadliest pandemic in a century, according to Sondre Ulwood Solstad, who heads the Economist research group. However, he points out that this cannot be compared to the 1918 flu (Spanish flu).

After all, applying this model at the time and making the necessary adjustments and proportions based on the world’s population and prevailing conditions, he estimates that if the deadly flu broke out today, it would cost 75 million lives! Correspondingly, the influenza epidemics of 1957, 1968 and 2009 claimed the lives of 3.1; 2.2 and 0.4 million people.

In any case, regardless of the accuracy of the Economist’s data, one can only agree that the real cost of Covid-19, as well as any great tragedy that befell humanity, is much higher than the official one. Especially if we add disasters caused by other sectors, for example, in the economy.

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