There are timid sprouts of optimism in the Treasury Department, as data for April and early May, following the lifting of restrictions on retail trade, opening of catering and freedom of travel, indicate a return to normalcy, which will pave the way for economic recovery from the pandemic crisis.
The macroeconomic scenario for 2021 is mainly based on an increase in consumption, given that the resources of the Next Generation EU fund will not give the economy a serious boost in 2021, although a significant part of them will be utilized within a year.
The figures available to the government show that consumption began to rise at a critical time when government support measures are coming to an end.
In total, the government will spend about 40 billion euros in 2020 and 2021, increasing government debt to such an extent that it will take time to fix it. Meanwhile, data for April and the first decade of May showed that consumption increased by an average of 20% across the entire spectrum of economic activity, not compared to the same month of 2020 (when the whole country was in lockdown mode), but from April 2019. when everything was in order.
A ministry official notes that the government has taken a wide range of measures to support businesses since the onset of this crisis, and continues measures such as reducing the corporate income tax deposit, suspending the collection of solidarity and cutting the corporate tax rate.
Businesses are now also seeing growth in consumption, which looks impressive in some sectors, and this trend is likely to continue throughout the year.
Another ministry official emphasizes that 5.5 million of the country’s 6.5 million taxpayers have not seen a drop in their income during this crisis. In any case, the quarantine has increased their savings, and they will gradually begin to return to the economy.
Of the € 22.5 billion in new deposits, that is, those added after the outbreak of the pandemic in Greece, about half are new household savings, and the rest comes from corporations. This amount of corporate savings is the result of the investment freeze and various loans distributed by the guarantee fund, banks and the government.