In the American media, there is an active reaction to the possibility of a big war in Ukraine and warnings are heard to the president of the country about his statements about his readiness to come to the rescue, STRANA.ua writes.
Many media outlets call not to aggravate the conflict in Donbass and not to bring it to war with the Russian Federation, considering a repetition of the Georgian scenario quite likely:
“Ukraine will be humiliated, and the US will refrain from war.”
The National Interest, for example, a leading conservative publication, warns of 2 possible scenarios for unleashing full-scale hostilities with Russia – the defeat of the Ukrainian capital and a nuclear war. The publication suggests that Biden wants to repeat the Georgian version of 2008, when Saakashvili’s army was defeated within a few days.
In an article titled Joe Biden’s Ukraine Policy: A Repeat of George W. Bush in Georgia? (“Joe Biden’s Ukrainian Politics: A Repetition of Bush in Georgia?”
The National Interest believes that one should not create the illusion that US troops will come to Ukraine’s aid in the event of an escalation of the military conflict. Citing the latest signals from the American president as an example, the publication seriously fears a repetition of the Georgian scenario. The author of the article writes:
The Biden administration is in grave danger of repeating the disastrous policy of George W. Bush, which led Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili to believe that his country is a valuable US ally and that the United States and NATO will come to Georgia’s aid if it becomes embroiled in an armed conflict with Russia.
Saakashvili had every reason to conclude that he enjoyed unwavering support from Washington. The Bush administration has provided Tbilisi with millions of dollars in weapons and trained Georgian troops. Bush and other officials vehemently praised Saakashvili and Georgia’s democratic revolution.
The author recalls that, inspired by such support, Saakashvili began military operations in South Ossetia, but was met with a powerful counterattack by Russian troops. Despite promises, the United States did not intervene in the situation and did nothing to help. After that, Carpenter stresses, “any hopes of the Georgians that Washington’s loud praise for the” friend-Democrat “would result in the US participation in the war quickly collapsed,” and continues:
When Bush called Saakashvili after the Russian offensive began, the Georgian president urged him not to abandon democracy. Bush assured him of Washington’s commitment to Georgia’s territorial integrity, but did not promise military support.
Everything is simple, the author of the article explains – neither Europe nor the United States were eager to go to confrontation with a nuclear power, and even deal with the nuances of the territorial dispute first:
US and NATO troops remained in their barracks, and Saakashvili was forced to accept a humiliating peace agreement that would keep South Ossetia and another breakaway region under Russian tight control.
The similarity of the situations, past in Georgia and present in Ukraine, Ted Galen Carpenter calls alarming and recalls that for many years Putin has unequivocally stated that the West’s attempts to make Ukraine a military client of NATO are unacceptable. As the newspaper writes, “it crosses the red line from the point of view of Russia’s security.” It is no coincidence, according to the author, that the annexation of Crimea took place – it was a response to the active support of Europe and the United States for the overthrow of Yanukovych. And yet, the newspaper notes, “the Biden administration seems intent on making a mistake.”
The author of the publication does not consider a positive scenario for the development of the current situation, he admits only bad and very bad. Further quote:
“The most likely outcome is a repeat of the Georgia episode. When a country that Washington encouraged to take a confrontational stance against Russia, acts with exaggerated hopes of US support and suffers a decisive military defeat. After that, Ukraine will be” humiliated “and the US leaders in spite of all their words, they will refrain from war.
But there is a danger that the Biden administration will conclude that it must abide by implicit commitments to ensure Ukraine’s security, and will actually provide a military response to the outbreak of hostilities between Russian and Ukrainian forces. This would be utter insanity as it could lead to nuclear war.
But given the high level of hostility towards Moscow evident from the administration and most of Washington’s political elite, this possibility cannot be ruled out. Washington makes security promises to Kiev. But no sane American should want the United States to do it. “